{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a15fcfe9-1901-425d-a950-b488bf4692f1", "symbol": "603819", "name": "Changzhou Shenli Electrical Machine Incorporated Company", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.416, "architecture_energy": 7.426, "architecture_maturity": 17.176, "architecture_confidence": 48.757, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.19, "rotation_up": 28.84, "upward_expansion": 21.3, "deceleration": 35.91, "rotation_down": 25.14, "downward_expansion": 55.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.880667, 12.517582, 12.858306, 12.973975 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.23, "trend_reference": 12.99058, "distance_from_trend": 0.095409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.488262, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13947, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.79846, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.133865, "excess_performance": 0.177068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.13947, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.147985, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071574, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.133865, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.382843, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33479690, "relative_activity": 0.861897, "balance": 1.382843, "dry_up": 0.936663, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10718, "annualized_volatility": 0.517339, "from_high_reference": -0.085825, "from_low_reference": 0.393732 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.99058, "fair_value_reference": 12.488262, "structural_low": 10.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.007776, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.000871, "regime_survival": 0.411765, "best_return": 0.399744, "worst_return": -0.155424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.04386, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008367, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.550515, "worst_return": -0.221527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031379, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.032034, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.258763, "worst_return": -0.2796, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 11.18, "volume": 33690676, "typical_volume": 37334771.35, "trend": 12.906247, "fair_value": 12.513649, "relative_strength": -7.148273, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.885622, "energy": 32.546812, "activity_lines": [ 11.966667, 12.027151, 12.769757, 12.891856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.87, "volume": 33868140, "typical_volume": 38053802.15, "trend": 12.920914, "fair_value": 12.496534, "relative_strength": 6.883935, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.680805, "energy": 19.549075, "activity_lines": [ 12.252, 12.132556, 12.749722, 12.889517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.23, "volume": 33479690, "typical_volume": 38844197.85, "trend": 12.99058, "fair_value": 12.488262, "relative_strength": 14.79846, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.416265, "energy": 7.426203, "activity_lines": [ 12.880667, 12.517582, 12.858306, 12.973975 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }