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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 62.513, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.056, "architecture_energy": 71.671, "architecture_maturity": 9.912, "architecture_confidence": 77.422, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.71, "rotation_up": 11.51, "upward_expansion": 17.89, "deceleration": 34.28, "rotation_down": 73.07, "downward_expansion": 88.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 232.513337, 240.825458, 245.082991, 247.608105 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 226.600006, "trend_reference": 251.469111, "distance_from_trend": -0.098895, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 170.195466, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33141, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.281734, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.135891, "excess_performance": -0.310138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.098895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0148, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33141, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137583, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.579545, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.579545, "dry_up": 0.595813, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062021, "annualized_volatility": 0.351328, "from_high_reference": -0.209847, "from_low_reference": 0.228324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 251.469111, "fair_value_reference": 170.195466, "structural_low": 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165.164378, "relative_strength": -11.497176, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.279172, "energy": 39.542671, "activity_lines": [ 259.380005, 255.38273, 252.675707, 253.329669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 237.199997, "volume": 88, "typical_volume": 56.35, "trend": 252.371974, "fair_value": 166.201796, "relative_strength": -18.062945, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.890855, "energy": 15.538652, "activity_lines": [ 251.500003, 253.08182, 251.175713, 252.353194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 237.899994, "volume": 74, "typical_volume": 34.45, "trend": 252.431926, "fair_value": 167.226234, "relative_strength": -16.229013, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.953936, "energy": 29.730963, "activity_lines": [ 245.56, 250.749092, 249.931634, 251.419518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 245.100006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.45, "trend": 252.61926, "fair_value": 168.298448, "relative_strength": -14.875271, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.104401, "energy": 32.539837, "activity_lines": [ 244.440001, 249.658183, 249.435685, 250.946491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 226.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31.05, "trend": 252.325731, "fair_value": 169.251449, "relative_strength": -21.127679, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.28119, "energy": 64.457891, "activity_lines": [ 237.406669, 245.103639, 247.194128, 249.267829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 226.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31.05, "trend": 251.469111, "fair_value": 170.195466, "relative_strength": -23.281734, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.056423, "energy": 71.670812, "activity_lines": [ 232.513337, 240.825458, 245.082991, 247.608105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }