{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1672431-98f8-436f-94d1-d715e266ef3e", "symbol": "AJG", "name": "Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.758, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.822, "architecture_energy": 15.483, "architecture_maturity": 34.454, "architecture_confidence": 67.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.71, "rotation_up": 31.43, "upward_expansion": 28.58, "deceleration": 52.8, "rotation_down": 16.5, "downward_expansion": 41.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 3762.25, 3750.091278, 3739.667637, 3746.775293 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3762.25, "trend_reference": 3815.058765, "distance_from_trend": -0.013842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4705.160482, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200399, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.548304, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.0933, "excess_performance": -0.038633, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068803, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015729, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165483, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146443, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0933, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01064, "annualized_volatility": 0.247647, "from_high_reference": -0.343796, "from_low_reference": 0.063191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3815.058765, "fair_value_reference": 4705.160482, "structural_low": 3538.640137, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-10-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014247, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.365275, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030698, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.150904, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012542, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.289487, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3709.519287, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 3709.098185, "fair_value": 3084.391433, "relative_strength": -1.99797, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.077378, "energy": 64.099534, 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"relative_strength": -17.411542, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.325756, "energy": 20.007765, "activity_lines": [ 3762.25, 3737.919829, 3737.318036, 3751.911054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3762.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 926.05, "trend": 3815.058765, "fair_value": 4705.160482, "relative_strength": -16.548304, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.821927, "energy": 15.483049, "activity_lines": [ 3762.25, 3750.091278, 3739.667637, 3746.775293 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }