{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a16bc6fc-0ea1-4a21-bb3c-8f39c42b910f", "symbol": "601900", "name": "Southern Publishing and Media Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.258, "architecture_energy": 28.033, "architecture_maturity": 91.8, "architecture_confidence": 79.193, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.45, "rotation_up": 31.09, "upward_expansion": 21.61, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 26.37, "downward_expansion": 60.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.584224, 11.321561, 11.601669, 12.085689 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.73, "trend_reference": 12.819616, "distance_from_trend": -0.084996, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.673715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14215, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.686574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.223179, "excess_performance": -0.179975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14215, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022006, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106866, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083042, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.538057, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41739867, "relative_activity": 1.324591, "balance": 0.538057, "dry_up": 1.271525, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053753, "annualized_volatility": 0.259416, "from_high_reference": -0.303444, "from_low_reference": 0.142126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.819616, "fair_value_reference": 13.673715, "structural_low": 10.270316, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.008621, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.007127, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.166005, "worst_return": -0.174714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014427, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.031443, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.309719, "worst_return": -0.268924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.152797, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.108936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.227396, "worst_return": -0.042497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.279786, "energy": 71.663498, "activity_lines": [ 10.902594, 11.154386, 11.75079, 12.335206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.2, "volume": 41495592, "typical_volume": 31313205.85, "trend": 12.925616, "fair_value": 13.765303, "relative_strength": -12.891067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.02136, "energy": 60.755951, "activity_lines": [ 11.008696, 11.113141, 11.645797, 12.218026 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.02, "volume": 34148188, "typical_volume": 31061250.65, "trend": 12.875616, "fair_value": 13.724885, "relative_strength": -6.480763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.977176, "energy": 36.234198, "activity_lines": [ 11.402798, 11.24226, 11.6329, 12.159599 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.73, "volume": 41739867, "typical_volume": 31511506.1, "trend": 12.819616, "fair_value": 13.673715, "relative_strength": -10.686574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.257893, "energy": 28.032938, "activity_lines": [ 11.584224, 11.321561, 11.601669, 12.085689 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }