{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1776bfb-58cf-40a1-a3cf-5d4b1343febe", "symbol": "CRS", "name": "Caprice Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.992, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.88, "architecture_energy": 16.952, "architecture_maturity": 20.259, "architecture_confidence": 66.193, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.67, "rotation_up": 22.87, "upward_expansion": 15.1, "deceleration": 54.16, "rotation_down": 31.85, "downward_expansion": 58.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.084933, 0.083764, 0.086914, 0.087209 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.089, "trend_reference": 0.088767, "distance_from_trend": 0.002629, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.056301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.580792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.709731, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011111, "excess_performance": -0.074817, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002629, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11587, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.580792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.93166, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.567663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.612638, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12778262, "relative_activity": 0.907761, "balance": 0.612638, "dry_up": 0.875534, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093345, "annualized_volatility": 0.868309, "from_high_reference": -0.44375, "from_low_reference": 0.369231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.088767, "fair_value_reference": 0.056301, "structural_low": 0.066, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.026315, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.013045, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.129019, "worst_return": -0.290323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.214286, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.220325, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.094294, "worst_return": -0.470588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.333909, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.36019, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.071429, "worst_return": -0.534885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.259259, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.666667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.994938, "energy": 36.48917, "activity_lines": [ 0.081867, 0.084127, 0.087319, 0.088101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.082, "volume": 19412445, "typical_volume": 14689115.95, "trend": 0.089967, "fair_value": 0.055655, "relative_strength": -17.372483, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.143272, "energy": 29.146712, "activity_lines": [ 0.081867, 0.082909, 0.086829, 0.087559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.085, "volume": 11093319, "typical_volume": 14477760.9, "trend": 0.089467, "fair_value": 0.055989, "relative_strength": -16.660849, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.034988, "energy": 22.055225, "activity_lines": [ 0.082867, 0.082836, 0.086686, 0.087239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.089, "volume": 12778262, "typical_volume": 14076676.8, "trend": 0.088767, "fair_value": 0.056301, "relative_strength": -15.709731, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.87983, "energy": 16.951924, "activity_lines": [ 0.084933, 0.083764, 0.086914, 0.087209 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }