{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a177f0de-005a-471f-8ef3-0eb35e4f5fe3", "symbol": "SEME", "name": "iShares MSCI Global Semiconductors UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.097, "architecture_energy": 29.199, "architecture_maturity": 73.015, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.44, "rotation_up": 18.78, "upward_expansion": 54.38, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 36.29, "downward_expansion": 20.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.108933, 17.9278, 17.576681, 16.324428 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.243999, "trend_reference": 14.673367, "distance_from_trend": 0.17519, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.345013, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.066384, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 24.306128, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.56394, "excess_performance": 0.393048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.17519, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.257609, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.066384, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197476, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.243061, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.56394, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.309405, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 674234, "relative_activity": 0.665135, "balance": 2.309405, "dry_up": 0.945754, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094249, "annualized_volatility": 0.411605, "from_high_reference": -0.170762, "from_low_reference": 1.465894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.673367, "fair_value_reference": 8.345013, "structural_low": 10.24, "invalidation": "A 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0.260785, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020239, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.459403, "worst_return": 0.062168, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052372, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00202, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009208, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", 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"typical_volume": 919522.65, "trend": 13.706767, "fair_value": 8.038888, "relative_strength": 46.725901, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.455754, "energy": 66.585852, "activity_lines": [ 19.5272, 19.049509, 17.084138, 15.579202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.879999, "volume": 948664, "typical_volume": 937135.25, "trend": 13.961633, "fair_value": 8.114965, "relative_strength": 30.351991, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.591239, "energy": 51.268438, "activity_lines": [ 18.6122, 18.762909, 17.238362, 15.783927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.502001, "volume": 602150, "typical_volume": 934657.5, "trend": 14.232767, "fair_value": 8.193458, "relative_strength": 33.673211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.566038, "energy": 36.356079, "activity_lines": [ 18.052133, 18.580818, 17.426414, 16.012338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.274, "volume": 1609721, "typical_volume": 993538.6, "trend": 14.447833, "fair_value": 8.265388, "relative_strength": 22.140495, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.251013, "energy": 29.351201, "activity_lines": [ 17.300267, 18.157164, 17.467676, 16.14403 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.243999, "volume": 674234, "typical_volume": 1013680.1, "trend": 14.673367, "fair_value": 8.345013, "relative_strength": 24.306128, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.097288, "energy": 29.199059, "activity_lines": [ 17.108933, 17.9278, 17.576681, 16.324428 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }