{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a17b1e4a-bbc8-4722-ba52-8f0c503ccdfd", "symbol": "MTS", "name": "Metcash Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.203, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.061, "architecture_energy": 18.14, "architecture_maturity": 18.755, "architecture_confidence": 49.839, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.98, "rotation_up": 34.69, "upward_expansion": 34.82, "deceleration": 31.83, "rotation_down": 23.35, "downward_expansion": 47.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.044374, 3.012157, 2.989206, 2.997372 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.15, "trend_reference": 3.045115, "distance_from_trend": 0.034444, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.274775, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.038102, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.491544, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015625, "excess_performance": -0.079331, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034444, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046609, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.038102, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12784, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111364, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.690197, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15127635, "relative_activity": 0.901471, "balance": 1.690197, "dry_up": 1.131149, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0406, "annualized_volatility": 0.244783, "from_high_reference": -0.241372, "from_low_reference": 0.197719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.045115, "fair_value_reference": 3.274775, "structural_low": 2.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.008646, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.006073, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.09887, "worst_return": -0.087179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.017682, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.013804, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.135922, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014417, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013891, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.369954, "worst_return": -0.072035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035578, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.104329, "worst_return": -0.122385, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037634, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.081135, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", 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2.984891, 2.961303, 2.998663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.97, "volume": 15918309, "typical_volume": 20400312.5, "trend": 3.059449, "fair_value": 3.276249, "relative_strength": -10.810105, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.627873, "energy": 23.93325, "activity_lines": [ 2.948617, 2.97901, 2.962334, 2.992204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.04, "volume": 20823006, "typical_volume": 20130341.8, "trend": 3.050449, "fair_value": 3.275019, "relative_strength": -10.337666, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.688916, "energy": 10.032287, "activity_lines": [ 2.98258, 2.985493, 2.970699, 2.990949 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.15, "volume": 15127635, "typical_volume": 16781055.75, "trend": 3.045115, "fair_value": 3.274775, "relative_strength": -9.491544, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.060642, "energy": 18.139691, "activity_lines": [ 3.044374, 3.012157, 2.989206, 2.997372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }