{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a17b57bc-d9ec-41a9-87c7-35ac7044b7b9", "symbol": "LITB", "name": "LightInTheBox Holding Co Ltd ARD", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.536, "architecture_energy": 29.889, "architecture_maturity": 22.279, "architecture_confidence": 73.874, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.94, "rotation_up": 42.87, "upward_expansion": 74.18, "deceleration": 64.32, "rotation_down": 22.77, "downward_expansion": 3.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.179493, 3.167598, 3.031519, 2.888338 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.1, "trend_reference": 2.748253, "distance_from_trend": 0.127989, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.364339, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078571, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.921688, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.169811, "excess_performance": 0.044186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135102, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078571, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.239068, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.119217, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020292, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.169811, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.521648, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16413, "relative_activity": 0.346364, "balance": 1.521648, "dry_up": 0.442072, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160859, "annualized_volatility": 0.660219, "from_high_reference": -0.256595, "from_low_reference": 1.695652 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.748253, "fair_value_reference": 3.364339, "structural_low": 1.85, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.021014, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.017398, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.889284, "worst_return": -0.486559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035988, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.105026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.308943, "worst_return": -0.216475, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.19204, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.085696, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.424731, "worst_return": -0.04065, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "up", "direction": 41.91583, "energy": 24.855499, "activity_lines": [ 3.093, 3.147455, 2.902167, 2.792432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.29, "volume": 25114, "typical_volume": 48697.55, "trend": 2.71265, "fair_value": 3.422621, "relative_strength": 27.131513, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.094682, "energy": 27.387324, "activity_lines": [ 3.163333, 3.182818, 2.956452, 2.831509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.2281, "volume": 16316, "typical_volume": 47202.6, "trend": 2.734587, "fair_value": 3.394467, "relative_strength": 21.834294, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.917279, "energy": 31.025738, "activity_lines": [ 3.197033, 3.193473, 3.001795, 2.864763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.1, "volume": 16413, "typical_volume": 47386.55, "trend": 2.748253, "fair_value": 3.364339, "relative_strength": 11.921688, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.535874, "energy": 29.888763, "activity_lines": [ 3.179493, 3.167598, 3.031519, 2.888338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }