{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a18060b8-4fd4-4e33-acd5-a50faeb12972", "symbol": "EM", "name": "Emak S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.433, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -6.184, "architecture_energy": 5.229, "architecture_maturity": 33.899, "architecture_confidence": 39.082, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.92, "rotation_up": 26.22, "upward_expansion": 21.73, "deceleration": 58.23, "rotation_down": 40.3, "downward_expansion": 33.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.8688, 0.873273, 0.87265, 0.869007 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.862, "trend_reference": 0.8716, "distance_from_trend": -0.011014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.898533, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040659, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.869628, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041267, "excess_performance": -0.212158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011014, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007102, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040659, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00455, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02736, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041267, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.637332, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 936587, "relative_activity": 2.131773, "balance": 0.637332, "dry_up": 1.198216, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04999, "annualized_volatility": 0.23162, "from_high_reference": -0.150836, "from_low_reference": 0.108983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8716, "fair_value_reference": 0.898533, "structural_low": 0.777289, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.017077, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037448, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.117886, "worst_return": -0.124294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.018888, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.075838, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.171009, "worst_return": -0.216076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.086595, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.148701, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.081767, "worst_return": -0.300182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.073319, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.253978, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.01989, "worst_return": -0.32099, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007291, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07527, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057758, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034554, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", 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0.87839, 0.869544, 0.870532 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.866, "volume": 1035444, "typical_volume": 447962.1, "trend": 0.874, "fair_value": 0.900687, "relative_strength": -17.2416, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.543004, "energy": 7.517189, "activity_lines": [ 0.878467, 0.877095, 0.869898, 0.869997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.87, "volume": 205009, "typical_volume": 440875.5, "trend": 0.87361, "fair_value": 0.90032, "relative_strength": -15.36487, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.263607, "energy": 3.555521, "activity_lines": [ 0.875067, 0.876654, 0.870759, 0.869739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.868, "volume": 476505, "typical_volume": 436098.95, "trend": 0.873153, "fair_value": 0.899813, "relative_strength": -15.094225, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.454329, "energy": 3.588702, "activity_lines": [ 0.871, 0.875729, 0.871452, 0.869377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.878, "volume": 487628, "typical_volume": 421249.65, "trend": 0.872579, "fair_value": 0.899358, "relative_strength": -14.345522, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.439001, "energy": 4.42524, "activity_lines": [ 0.872667, 0.876291, 0.872882, 0.869689 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.862, "volume": 936587, "typical_volume": 439346.55, "trend": 0.8716, "fair_value": 0.898533, "relative_strength": -17.869628, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.183864, "energy": 5.228903, "activity_lines": [ 0.8688, 0.873273, 0.87265, 0.869007 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }