{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a183938a-fe97-49e4-ae99-5707c97efd4d", "symbol": "603390", "name": "Guangzhou Tongda Auto Electric Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.967, "architecture_energy": 76.913, "architecture_maturity": 25.966, "architecture_confidence": 89.044, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.31, "rotation_up": 11.1, "upward_expansion": 18.08, "deceleration": 38.23, "rotation_down": 72.22, "downward_expansion": 91.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.608, 10.028545, 11.145457, 11.576596 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.0, "trend_reference": 12.114886, "distance_from_trend": -0.174569, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.365448, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035256, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.855241, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.2145, "excess_performance": -0.171296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.174569, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035256, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.414464, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173075, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.2145, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.493543, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29977400, "relative_activity": 0.66821, "balance": 0.493543, "dry_up": 0.715938, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107836, "annualized_volatility": 0.480044, "from_high_reference": -0.359276, "from_low_reference": 0.17096 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.114886, "fair_value_reference": 10.365448, "structural_low": 8.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.009901, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.01789, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.352289, "worst_return": -0.185714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011363, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.030384, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.223404, "worst_return": -0.146348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.074696, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.051215, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.039514, "worst_return": -0.084291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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12.139223, 12.331106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.21, "volume": 38304400, "typical_volume": 43486285.1, "trend": 12.458841, "fair_value": 10.340986, "relative_strength": -23.571673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.360406, "energy": 83.478718, "activity_lines": [ 10.166667, 10.955877, 11.841823, 12.115858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.01, "volume": 32943600, "typical_volume": 43817768.4, "trend": 12.324531, "fair_value": 10.345115, "relative_strength": -25.517099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.282611, "energy": 88.093616, "activity_lines": [ 9.653333, 10.451577, 11.542662, 11.893353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.63, "volume": 27249000, "typical_volume": 44169248.4, "trend": 12.215201, "fair_value": 10.353155, "relative_strength": -20.19124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.942578, "energy": 82.66229, "activity_lines": [ 9.534667, 10.164029, 11.320504, 11.719512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.0, "volume": 29977400, "typical_volume": 44862233.4, "trend": 12.114886, "fair_value": 10.365448, "relative_strength": -18.855241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.966783, "energy": 76.913171, "activity_lines": [ 9.608, 10.028545, 11.145457, 11.576596 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }