{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a184e6b8-74cd-4075-9506-1a973bd3dbb2", "symbol": "300329", "name": "Hailun Piano Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.991, "architecture_energy": 43.446, "architecture_maturity": 53.439, "architecture_confidence": 90.139, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.98, "rotation_up": 27.55, "upward_expansion": 8.76, "deceleration": 57.37, "rotation_down": 47.23, "downward_expansion": 77.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.266667, 11.275818, 12.045095, 12.652387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.91, "trend_reference": 13.360667, "distance_from_trend": -0.033731, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.706565, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.482789, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.444608, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047232, "excess_performance": -0.054632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033731, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121471, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.482789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285227, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041953, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.289401, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22396402, "relative_activity": 1.263294, "balance": 0.289401, "dry_up": 0.856662, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091104, "annualized_volatility": 0.489974, "from_high_reference": -0.329351, "from_low_reference": 0.343392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.360667, "fair_value_reference": 8.706565, "structural_low": 9.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.003556, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.138075, "worst_return": -0.197213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006799, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015037, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.51651, "worst_return": -0.335678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008183, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056463, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.371042, "worst_return": -0.277387, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -28.556063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.657736, "energy": 87.303867, "activity_lines": [ 10.585333, 11.199091, 12.267905, 12.873505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.75, "volume": 13439420, "typical_volume": 18804083.6, "trend": 13.47, "fair_value": 8.669571, "relative_strength": -22.430029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.070325, "energy": 74.3133, "activity_lines": [ 10.547333, 11.017818, 12.046857, 12.688516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.91, "volume": 22396402, "typical_volume": 17728575.0, "trend": 13.360667, "fair_value": 8.706565, "relative_strength": -11.444608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.99072, "energy": 43.445958, "activity_lines": [ 11.266667, 11.275818, 12.045095, 12.652387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }