{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a186b9ee-04fc-4d82-8bee-8415b4e5dd66", "symbol": "EXCH", "name": "iShares MSCI EM ex China UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.266, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.23, "architecture_energy": 26.265, "architecture_maturity": 66.242, "architecture_confidence": 83.832, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.94, "rotation_up": 20.56, "upward_expansion": 55.02, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 39.91, "downward_expansion": 21.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.755733, 7.954673, 7.914881, 7.663503 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.8, "trend_reference": 7.3203, "distance_from_trend": 0.06553, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.820937, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.391431, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.187938, "excess_performance": 0.017046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06553, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114354, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09772, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023914, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167718, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.187938, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.67574, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 428389, "relative_activity": 1.505916, "balance": 0.67574, "dry_up": 2.071441, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055266, "annualized_volatility": 0.273794, "from_high_reference": -0.105299, "from_low_reference": 0.542416 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.3203, "fair_value_reference": 5.820937, "structural_low": 6.194, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057261, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0027, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 5.035, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 5.104, "volume": 7184, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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"direction": 65.391207, "energy": 64.518182, "activity_lines": [ 8.358533, 8.252582, 7.847929, 7.52586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.644, "volume": 802510, "typical_volume": 279700.35, "trend": 7.147133, "fair_value": 5.759226, "relative_strength": 4.829934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.976246, "energy": 42.016806, "activity_lines": [ 8.1152, 8.162764, 7.864567, 7.561994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.779, "volume": 553639, "typical_volume": 263171.1, "trend": 7.213833, "fair_value": 5.780713, "relative_strength": 6.477701, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.536648, "energy": 26.474564, "activity_lines": [ 7.953533, 8.101636, 7.89129, 7.602759 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.623, "volume": 572520, "typical_volume": 279110.45, "trend": 7.267633, "fair_value": 5.800105, "relative_strength": 3.332656, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.602968, "energy": 26.399123, "activity_lines": [ 7.7998, 8.009964, 7.897338, 7.629157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.8, "volume": 428389, "typical_volume": 284470.75, "trend": 7.3203, "fair_value": 5.820937, "relative_strength": 2.391431, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.230331, "energy": 26.26486, "activity_lines": [ 7.755733, 7.954673, 7.914881, 7.663503 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }