{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a18ea0c9-30b4-43f4-9ff1-9acf5537c74d", "symbol": "NANR", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P NORTH AMERICAN NATURAL RESOURCES ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.663, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.784, "architecture_energy": 26.942, "architecture_maturity": 33.29, "architecture_confidence": 71.474, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.25, "rotation_up": 60.32, "upward_expansion": 35.26, "deceleration": 44.27, "rotation_down": 19.86, "downward_expansion": 23.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.72, 79.335818, 79.874464, 80.254919 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 83.05, "trend_reference": 80.20019, "distance_from_trend": 0.035534, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.908682, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.409809, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.313129, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057804, "excess_performance": -0.06782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035534, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055746, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.409809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045803, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.013131, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057804, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72657, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172304, "relative_activity": 1.030668, "balance": 0.72657, "dry_up": 0.886724, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032961, "annualized_volatility": 0.174318, "from_high_reference": -0.032484, "from_low_reference": 0.46257 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.20019, "fair_value_reference": 58.908682, "structural_low": 74.79, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.004258, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.007799, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.143007, "worst_return": -0.093448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.075522, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.012299, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.17385, "worst_return": -0.088416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.09254, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033081, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.433664, "worst_return": 0.000821, "sufficient": true }, { 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76.835333, 78.329496, 79.887287, 79.929255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 77.81, "volume": 78675, "typical_volume": 211663.75, "trend": 78.999927, "fair_value": 58.32341, "relative_strength": -0.332521, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.690998, "energy": 61.664806, "activity_lines": [ 76.942, 78.02133, 79.604442, 79.876221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.93, "volume": 84646, "typical_volume": 203138.1, "trend": 79.419939, "fair_value": 58.51455, "relative_strength": 3.93972, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.4397, "energy": 20.874567, "activity_lines": [ 78.273333, 78.356489, 79.651399, 80.000742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.12, "volume": 257334, "typical_volume": 169075.85, "trend": 79.810307, "fair_value": 58.703398, "relative_strength": 1.472577, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.075416, "energy": 9.777114, "activity_lines": [ 79.142, 78.56638, 79.621973, 80.045907 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.05, "volume": 172304, "typical_volume": 167176.95, "trend": 80.20019, "fair_value": 58.908682, "relative_strength": 1.313129, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.783826, "energy": 26.941718, "activity_lines": [ 80.72, 79.335818, 79.874464, 80.254919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }