{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a192493f-3f5f-409d-af61-dcca983b17c1", "symbol": "SSH", "name": "SSH Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.507, "architecture_energy": 24.901, "architecture_maturity": 79.749, "architecture_confidence": 73.272, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.39, "rotation_up": 27.12, "upward_expansion": 19.79, "deceleration": 46.75, "rotation_down": 29.85, "downward_expansion": 58.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.151, 0.148909, 0.15269, 0.15786 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.145, "trend_reference": 0.1665, "distance_from_trend": -0.129129, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.12842, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129109, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.3973, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.194444, "excess_performance": -0.25815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129129, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044476, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129109, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194344, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153973, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.306874, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244723, "relative_activity": 1.56777, "balance": 1.306874, "dry_up": 1.059844, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070292, "annualized_volatility": 0.473987, "from_high_reference": -0.309524, "from_low_reference": 0.26087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1665, "fair_value_reference": 0.12842, "structural_low": 0.115, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.006944, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017253, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.147059, "worst_return": -0.162791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018473, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004065, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.304348, "worst_return": -0.39, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.113636, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.197508, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.096774, "worst_return": -0.371429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012987, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05618, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.318182, "active": false }, { "regime": 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.15, "volume": 580103, "typical_volume": 191335.8, "trend": 0.170083, "fair_value": 0.128324, "relative_strength": -7.822739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.10671, "energy": 75.126734, "activity_lines": [ 0.145, 0.147818, 0.155595, 0.162425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.145, "volume": 136681, "typical_volume": 173465.45, "trend": 0.169083, "fair_value": 0.128292, "relative_strength": -10.794212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.758751, "energy": 51.657546, "activity_lines": [ 0.145, 0.146545, 0.153952, 0.160806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.16, "volume": 226999, "typical_volume": 161860.65, "trend": 0.16875, "fair_value": 0.128388, "relative_strength": -1.446996, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.507249, "energy": 32.10225, "activity_lines": [ 0.150333, 0.148455, 0.154, 0.16022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.155, "volume": 53348, "typical_volume": 161224.7, "trend": 0.167833, "fair_value": 0.12842, "relative_strength": -6.696873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.405018, "energy": 23.961217, "activity_lines": [ 0.152667, 0.149545, 0.153762, 0.159333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.145, "volume": 244723, "typical_volume": 156096.25, "trend": 0.1665, "fair_value": 0.12842, "relative_strength": -15.3973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.506534, "energy": 24.901147, "activity_lines": [ 0.151, 0.148909, 0.15269, 0.15786 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }