{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1941760-6ca1-4ab6-830a-d4ecd31ad5ba", "symbol": "HDV", "name": "ISHARES TRUST ISHARES CORE HIGH DIVIDEND", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.822, "architecture_energy": 70.927, "architecture_maturity": 28.809, "architecture_confidence": 74.921, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.91, "rotation_up": 74.4, "upward_expansion": 90.58, "deceleration": 43.4, "rotation_down": 10.97, "downward_expansion": 14.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.612182, 28.251197, 27.791119, 27.520645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.78, "trend_reference": 27.148078, "distance_from_trend": 0.060112, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.472949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280651, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.29303, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063495, "excess_performance": -0.06213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060112, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051348, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280651, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05084, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00293, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029669, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063495, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.225389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32505969, "relative_activity": 2.204859, "balance": 2.225389, "dry_up": 2.104207, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028917, "annualized_volatility": 0.121227, "from_high_reference": -0.028031, "from_low_reference": 0.252705 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.148078, "fair_value_reference": 22.472949, "structural_low": 26.177209, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.008679, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.000539, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.072401, "worst_return": -0.068576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.027956, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.03463, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.090372, "worst_return": -0.045796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03512, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.035476, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.13581, "worst_return": -0.01825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": 76.068747, "energy": 68.750994, "activity_lines": [ 28.216917, 27.88199, 27.50546, 27.284634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.73, "volume": 33579075, "typical_volume": 13343851.15, "trend": 27.002419, "fair_value": 22.408689, "relative_strength": 3.042009, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.438068, "energy": 67.016269, "activity_lines": [ 28.438474, 28.070843, 27.650468, 27.405963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.78, "volume": 32505969, "typical_volume": 14742877.5, "trend": 27.148078, "fair_value": 22.472949, "relative_strength": -0.29303, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.822236, "energy": 70.926648, "activity_lines": [ 28.612182, 28.251197, 27.791119, 27.520645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }