{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1a25d37-cd9b-4df3-ac30-693c981397ad", "symbol": "GFC", "name": "Gecina", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.97, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.006, "architecture_energy": 64.72, "architecture_maturity": 7.484, "architecture_confidence": 47.944, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.4, "rotation_up": 72.95, "upward_expansion": 63.79, "deceleration": 20.93, "rotation_down": 19.09, "downward_expansion": 24.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.789998, 73.400851, 72.554641, 72.145718 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 75.349998, "trend_reference": 72.205087, "distance_from_trend": 0.043555, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 81.757686, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078374, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.799013, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008816, "excess_performance": -0.183063, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043555, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078374, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035341, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032154, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008816, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.125786, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15, "relative_activity": 1.675978, "balance": 0.125786, "dry_up": 4.860335, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029957, "annualized_volatility": 0.237, "from_high_reference": -0.134698, "from_low_reference": 0.153905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.205087, "fair_value_reference": 81.757686, "structural_low": 65.300003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024893, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010929, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.193496, "worst_return": -0.082489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014955, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.004483, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138381, "worst_return": -0.045559, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.008815, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04063, "worst_return": -0.122051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002175, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062297, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013977, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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71.233507, 71.149639, 71.73031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 70.001884, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.25, "trend": 72.658351, "fair_value": 82.043635, "relative_strength": -27.150878, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.615626, "energy": 37.327874, "activity_lines": [ 70.479794, 70.949288, 71.041123, 71.544121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 72.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.25, "trend": 72.508316, "fair_value": 81.972666, "relative_strength": -23.340274, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.381266, "energy": 19.236324, "activity_lines": [ 71.049608, 71.073783, 71.13004, 71.501647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 74.849998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.75, "trend": 72.45809, "fair_value": 81.919694, "relative_strength": -18.024141, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.825339, "energy": 14.590287, "activity_lines": [ 72.352822, 71.711004, 71.495562, 71.652723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 74.199997, "volume": 159, "typical_volume": 8.7, "trend": 72.363757, "fair_value": 81.863101, "relative_strength": -19.1242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.557433, "energy": 39.51737, "activity_lines": [ 73.189932, 72.199135, 71.800858, 71.765104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 75.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8.2, "trend": 72.28673, "fair_value": 81.808273, "relative_strength": -17.298778, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.313726, "energy": 56.585053, "activity_lines": [ 74.090123, 72.811811, 72.184416, 71.948088 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 75.349998, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 8.95, "trend": 72.205087, "fair_value": 81.757686, "relative_strength": -18.799013, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.005927, "energy": 64.720308, "activity_lines": [ 74.789998, 73.400851, 72.554641, 72.145718 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }