{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1aa06c1-02e8-4f20-b608-f0a3ccb806b7", "symbol": "TMUS", "name": "T-Mobile US, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.523, "architecture_energy": 36.72, "architecture_maturity": 43.234, "architecture_confidence": 90.069, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.04, "rotation_up": 23.86, "upward_expansion": 6.86, "deceleration": 50.65, "rotation_down": 50.47, "downward_expansion": 77.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 156.215998, 157.650543, 159.460299, 162.967101 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 154.279999, "trend_reference": 166.093667, "distance_from_trend": -0.071127, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 174.522503, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.054534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.068223, "excess_performance": -0.242469, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071127, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028312, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068223, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.776614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 990, "relative_activity": 6.133829, "balance": 1.776614, "dry_up": 3.30855, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052713, "annualized_volatility": 0.280323, "from_high_reference": -0.297299, "from_low_reference": 0.035853 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 166.093667, "fair_value_reference": 174.522503, "structural_low": 148.940002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.006383, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.020717, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.188595, "worst_return": -0.135397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.034764, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.046977, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.272384, "worst_return": -0.171142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.021637, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.032628, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.228499, "worst_return": -0.147643, 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0.42118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065357, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000747, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.102563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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-55.776127, "energy": 39.227904, "activity_lines": [ 158.776, 159.070215, 162.497987, 165.389639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 170.339996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 56.85, "trend": 167.541578, "fair_value": 173.866048, "relative_strength": -21.044432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.179277, "energy": 12.967407, "activity_lines": [ 162.557332, 160.982958, 162.770498, 165.576134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 157.259995, "volume": 913, "typical_volume": 100.25, "trend": 167.286122, "fair_value": 174.092489, "relative_strength": -27.300199, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.492936, "energy": 22.556687, "activity_lines": [ 161.409331, 160.399432, 161.850322, 164.912806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.479996, "volume": 233, "typical_volume": 111.9, "trend": 166.632298, "fair_value": 174.30004, "relative_strength": -30.026065, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.174136, "energy": 36.503901, "activity_lines": [ 157.686664, 158.463271, 160.342276, 163.764024 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 154.279999, "volume": 990, "typical_volume": 161.4, "trend": 166.093667, "fair_value": 174.522503, "relative_strength": -29.054534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.522888, "energy": 36.720199, "activity_lines": [ 156.215998, 157.650543, 159.460299, 162.967101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }