{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1ae0aac-0978-4a17-b94c-921c05652d6b", "symbol": "MINT", "name": "PIMCO ETFs plc - US Dollar Short Maturity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.268, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.443, "architecture_energy": 44.315, "architecture_maturity": 55.068, "architecture_confidence": 56.03, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.32, "rotation_up": 48.77, "upward_expansion": 70.45, "deceleration": 61.94, "rotation_down": 25.13, "downward_expansion": 18.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.520353, 87.528869, 86.954122, 86.538296 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 87.07, "trend_reference": 85.914696, "distance_from_trend": 0.013447, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 84.887211, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025714, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.391468, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037426, "excess_performance": -0.133466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013447, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025714, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018371, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007807, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037426, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.37052, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3373, "relative_activity": 1.028605, "balance": 6.37052, "dry_up": 0.817806, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008143, "annualized_volatility": 0.059337, "from_high_reference": -0.01608, "from_low_reference": 0.059202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.914696, "fair_value_reference": 84.887211, "structural_low": 83.149193, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.000357, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.029618, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.029474, "worst_return": -0.055224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013632, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.065537, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.063445, "worst_return": -0.060579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013218, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.139828, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.094456, "worst_return": -0.031025, 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87.367069, 86.857438, 86.292502, 85.879887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 87.735291, "volume": 7666, "typical_volume": 4173.05, "trend": 85.460627, "fair_value": 84.657685, "relative_strength": -11.243973, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.620969, "energy": 85.856118, "activity_lines": [ 87.561564, 87.097616, 86.46286, 86.034846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 87.739998, "volume": 3021, "typical_volume": 4228.7, "trend": 85.581596, "fair_value": 84.720164, "relative_strength": -9.64884, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.533413, "energy": 83.843724, "activity_lines": [ 87.691661, 87.295096, 86.617256, 86.181902 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 88.199997, "volume": 2143, "typical_volume": 3761.9, "trend": 85.731018, "fair_value": 84.780379, "relative_strength": -8.733188, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.775033, "energy": 86.186169, "activity_lines": [ 87.880813, 87.523523, 86.798086, 86.350831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.410004, "volume": 2190, "typical_volume": 3497.2, "trend": 85.843283, "fair_value": 84.835529, "relative_strength": -9.799138, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.528092, "energy": 56.095992, "activity_lines": [ 87.744413, 87.568038, 86.893357, 86.459153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.07, "volume": 3373, "typical_volume": 3279.2, "trend": 85.914696, "fair_value": 84.887211, "relative_strength": -12.391468, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.443036, "energy": 44.314805, "activity_lines": [ 87.520353, 87.528869, 86.954122, 86.538296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }