{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1af71db-36c3-448d-ae71-c80b92bb4f37", "symbol": "MLLOI", "name": "Locasystem International SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.177, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.2, "architecture_energy": 16.326, "architecture_maturity": 64.799, "architecture_confidence": 49.926, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.1, "rotation_up": 44.78, "upward_expansion": 37.36, "deceleration": 39.89, "rotation_down": 15.45, "downward_expansion": 41.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.946667, 11.589091, 11.53, 11.74129 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.0, "trend_reference": 12.011667, "distance_from_trend": -0.000971, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.506428, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111534, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.805987, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043478, "excess_performance": -0.009833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000971, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061589, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111534, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076171, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030516, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043478, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.034355, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 501, "relative_activity": 1.764706, "balance": 0.034355, "dry_up": 2.484149, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075, "annualized_volatility": 0.623005, "from_high_reference": -0.182331, "from_low_reference": 0.311475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.011667, "fair_value_reference": 13.506428, "structural_low": 9.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004332, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.12605, "worst_return": -0.146465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.083181, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.097165, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.451923, "worst_return": -0.174603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.084528, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.148496, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.196428, "worst_return": -0.160987, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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10.68, 10.944545, 11.486905, 11.810645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.0, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 160.8, "trend": 12.191667, "fair_value": 13.706036, "relative_strength": -8.820227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.047718, "energy": 46.923401, "activity_lines": [ 11.056667, 11.101818, 11.494286, 11.794624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.6, "volume": 66, "typical_volume": 163.5, "trend": 12.125, "fair_value": 13.638438, "relative_strength": -11.681287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.890134, "energy": 23.859984, "activity_lines": [ 11.3, 11.177273, 11.470238, 11.756452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.0, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 157.05, "trend": 12.078333, "fair_value": 13.572352, "relative_strength": -8.86811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.975987, "energy": 23.709837, "activity_lines": [ 11.663333, 11.323636, 11.492857, 11.748387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.0, "volume": 2244, "typical_volume": 266.35, "trend": 12.031667, "fair_value": 13.538864, "relative_strength": -10.00423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.135245, "energy": 22.605261, "activity_lines": [ 11.9, 11.460909, 11.513095, 11.743333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.0, "volume": 501, "typical_volume": 283.9, "trend": 12.011667, "fair_value": 13.506428, "relative_strength": -11.805987, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.199566, "energy": 16.326005, "activity_lines": [ 11.946667, 11.589091, 11.53, 11.74129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }