{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1afaa4b-f1b2-4bdf-89f4-c258a38664d1", "symbol": "MTF-F122", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF Sal (4D) Index Top10 Tech", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.55, "architecture_energy": 67.35, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.862, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.37, "rotation_up": 29.9, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 50.74, "downward_expansion": 76.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.003333, 90.910909, 1052.699048, 1632.930108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.1, "trend_reference": 2299.849, "distance_from_trend": -0.985173, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2838.708417, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.950899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989833, "excess_performance": -1.03112, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.985173, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325221, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.077564, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.989509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.737278, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989833, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.5562, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14000, "relative_activity": 0.172473, "balance": 1.5562, "dry_up": 0.384594, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.979134, "annualized_volatility": 6.371727, "from_high_reference": -0.991218, "from_low_reference": 0.150084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2299.849, "fair_value_reference": 2838.708417, "structural_low": 29.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001803, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.003006, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.078444, "worst_return": -0.047251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.003088, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.076195, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.003088, "worst_return": 0.003088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081818, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075585, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053965, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036133, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025503, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035844, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 2081.0, "volume": 266230, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 2158.0, "volume": 121580, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": 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1282.005455, 2120.823333, 2479.966667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.91, "volume": 1340, "typical_volume": 78967.8, "trend": 2778.322333, "fair_value": 2921.842, "relative_strength": -99.101773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.666439, "energy": 89.032838, "activity_lines": [ 31.419333, 924.157091, 1876.954, 2294.914065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.52, "volume": 20615, "typical_volume": 77596.2, "trend": 2656.806333, "fair_value": 2900.596985, "relative_strength": -99.047924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.33169, "energy": 88.561644, "activity_lines": [ 31.681333, 626.330364, 1648.181286, 2117.765527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 33.12, "volume": 75810, "typical_volume": 80517.95, "trend": 2538.810333, "fair_value": 2879.666496, "relative_strength": -99.026638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.992007, "energy": 85.675914, "activity_lines": [ 32.17, 387.930545, 1434.420381, 1948.495441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.06, "volume": 14448, "typical_volume": 80730.3, "trend": 2418.612333, "fair_value": 2859.031667, "relative_strength": -99.035894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.977934, "energy": 68.009878, "activity_lines": [ 32.256, 209.026727, 1235.819857, 1786.769613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.1, "volume": 14000, "typical_volume": 81171.95, "trend": 2299.849, "fair_value": 2838.708417, "relative_strength": -98.950899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.550216, "energy": 67.350175, "activity_lines": [ 33.003333, 90.910909, 1052.699048, 1632.930108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }