{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1b0114f-e7ee-4d8a-a6ed-d25757579104", "symbol": "IYM", "name": "ISHARES TRUST U.S. BASIC MATERIALS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.604, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.897, "architecture_energy": 14.679, "architecture_maturity": 21.276, "architecture_confidence": 87.677, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.61, "rotation_up": 31.52, "upward_expansion": 41.38, "deceleration": 79.45, "rotation_down": 28.85, "downward_expansion": 33.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 180.448, 180.453586, 181.218444, 180.46919 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 188.46, "trend_reference": 179.148437, "distance_from_trend": 0.051977, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 144.572002, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303572, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.493968, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071504, "excess_performance": -0.05412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051977, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061304, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303572, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009314, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01494, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040633, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071504, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.729765, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2494939, "relative_activity": 2.042987, "balance": 1.729765, "dry_up": 0.791462, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041009, "annualized_volatility": 0.227609, "from_high_reference": -0.015206, "from_low_reference": 0.368996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 179.148437, "fair_value_reference": 144.572002, "structural_low": 162.042446, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.033466, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001444, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.081533, "worst_return": -0.165734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025301, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.020934, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.111205, "worst_return": -0.148155, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.020776, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.059148, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.141928, "worst_return": -0.18444, 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"typical_volume": 1213158.4, "trend": 176.949407, "fair_value": 143.559717, "relative_strength": -2.220848, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.682641, "energy": 13.247147, "activity_lines": [ 178.338, 180.576661, 180.877478, 179.843295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 178.5, "volume": 575159, "typical_volume": 1194655.55, "trend": 177.6736, "fair_value": 143.864548, "relative_strength": 0.855252, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.947721, "energy": 15.53552, "activity_lines": [ 177.839333, 180.053292, 180.778526, 179.943334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 175.7, "volume": 386410, "typical_volume": 1197417.15, "trend": 178.335629, "fair_value": 144.173496, "relative_strength": -1.901405, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.435018, "energy": 23.594809, "activity_lines": [ 176.863333, 179.043683, 180.398458, 179.816005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 188.46, "volume": 2494939, "typical_volume": 1221221.3, "trend": 179.148437, "fair_value": 144.572002, "relative_strength": 1.493968, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.896668, "energy": 14.678757, "activity_lines": [ 180.448, 180.453586, 181.218444, 180.46919 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }