{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1b8b704-cba2-4f19-a910-626835bf7a70", "symbol": "EFX", "name": "Equifax Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.146, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.973, "architecture_energy": 21.449, "architecture_maturity": 14.866, "architecture_confidence": 48.083, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.06, "rotation_up": 45.75, "upward_expansion": 35.9, "deceleration": 40.25, "rotation_down": 14.55, "downward_expansion": 41.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 153.729999, 150.027272, 147.475752, 149.867177 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 157.949997, "trend_reference": 155.120086, "distance_from_trend": 0.018243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 206.097375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.233615, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.551197, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035894, "excess_performance": -0.210141, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018243, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070973, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.233615, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059391, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.265512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088024, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035894, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.146853, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.146853, "dry_up": 2.466667, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063511, "annualized_volatility": 0.391204, "from_high_reference": -0.287844, "from_low_reference": 0.187148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 155.120086, "fair_value_reference": 206.097375, "structural_low": 133.050003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 7.8e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043347, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.162162, "worst_return": -0.114804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.053842, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010274, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163819, "worst_return": -0.087911, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.054851, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.16458, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111556, "worst_return": -0.171394, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.192351, "energy": 30.456962, "activity_lines": [ 143.629998, 142.633739, 145.497918, 150.854122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 154.199997, "volume": 41, "typical_volume": 20.3, "trend": 158.38684, "fair_value": 206.525804, "relative_strength": -27.806584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.11717, "energy": 18.373098, "activity_lines": [ 147.799997, 144.80096, 145.856274, 150.516315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 154.050003, "volume": 43, "typical_volume": 22.45, "trend": 157.365783, "fair_value": 206.365839, "relative_strength": -28.007148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.967068, "energy": 18.205621, "activity_lines": [ 150.923332, 146.838181, 146.298214, 150.236519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 150.0, "volume": 138, "typical_volume": 25.15, "trend": 156.309017, "fair_value": 206.207999, "relative_strength": -28.979628, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.168224, "energy": 17.63154, "activity_lines": [ 151.366666, 147.800909, 146.481392, 149.761308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 157.949997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.5, "trend": 155.120086, "fair_value": 206.097375, "relative_strength": -26.551197, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.972529, "energy": 21.448734, "activity_lines": [ 153.729999, 150.027272, 147.475752, 149.867177 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }