{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1c5e501-70a5-4c68-b21f-85b3c8d5102f", "symbol": "VISTAA", "name": "Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.533, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.185, "architecture_energy": 7.376, "architecture_maturity": 24.203, "architecture_confidence": 52.989, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.15, "rotation_up": 33.16, "upward_expansion": 55.27, "deceleration": 66.37, "rotation_down": 26.16, "downward_expansion": 25.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 1168.647974, 1163.052894, 1190.478849, 1184.853479 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1127.069946, "trend_reference": 1147.202332, "distance_from_trend": -0.017549, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 868.979232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.297004, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.583504, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.16916, "excess_performance": 0.223826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094664, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.297004, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096774, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115835, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015968, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16916, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.690374, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225317, "relative_activity": 3.159402, "balance": 3.690374, "dry_up": 2.745892, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082925, "annualized_volatility": 0.483285, "from_high_reference": -0.209074, "from_low_reference": 0.891057 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1147.202332, "fair_value_reference": 868.979232, "structural_low": 915.820007, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.027668, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.006148, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.180556, "worst_return": -0.224154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.228448, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.270888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.540904, "worst_return": 0.063604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.476518, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.46576, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.709203, "worst_return": -0.135535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064609, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.180851, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052238, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132803, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.101044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"fair_value": 845.497823, "relative_strength": 10.763228, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.639555, "energy": 15.140116, "activity_lines": [ 1161.249341, 1205.12546, 1211.951002, 1170.338497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1118.469971, "volume": 266519, "typical_volume": 87234.95, "trend": 1104.411668, "fair_value": 850.049297, "relative_strength": 13.352915, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.345163, "energy": 22.173545, "activity_lines": [ 1135.277995, 1185.883272, 1204.654761, 1171.720323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1120.0, "volume": 225401, "typical_volume": 98364.6, "trend": 1114.039335, "fair_value": 854.373976, "relative_strength": 12.977753, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.698135, "energy": 29.658882, "activity_lines": [ 1122.677995, 1170.219818, 1196.960666, 1172.726022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1217.5, "volume": 51641, "typical_volume": 76818.75, "trend": 1126.105001, "fair_value": 859.473335, "relative_strength": 22.637002, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.373514, "energy": 17.324816, "activity_lines": [ 1150.777995, 1172.265454, 1197.980857, 1179.400903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1220.849976, "volume": 280949, "typical_volume": 62629.85, "trend": 1137.3, "fair_value": 864.574938, "relative_strength": 21.35982, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.534841, "energy": 12.285395, "activity_lines": [ 1178.079321, 1175.339631, 1198.816616, 1185.513482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1127.069946, "volume": 225317, "typical_volume": 71316.35, "trend": 1147.202332, "fair_value": 868.979232, "relative_strength": 11.583504, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.184758, "energy": 7.375911, "activity_lines": [ 1168.647974, 1163.052894, 1190.478849, 1184.853479 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }