{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1ca425f-38dc-42b8-b7df-07523876df7f", "symbol": "TJX", "name": "The TJX Companies Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.758, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.138, "architecture_energy": 15.254, "architecture_maturity": 18.154, "architecture_confidence": 45.141, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.62, "rotation_up": 40.47, "upward_expansion": 53.84, "deceleration": 61.56, "rotation_down": 20.59, "downward_expansion": 19.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 157.272, 156.993818, 157.095226, 157.015593 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 161.36, "trend_reference": 156.591133, "distance_from_trend": 0.030454, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 121.96247, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.02063, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.041524, "excess_performance": -0.084101, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030454, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013733, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000565, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -9e-05, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041524, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.879244, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29522820, "relative_activity": 1.140674, "balance": 0.879244, "dry_up": 0.983628, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052956, "annualized_volatility": 0.201542, "from_high_reference": -0.050824, "from_low_reference": 0.247888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 156.591133, "fair_value_reference": 121.96247, "structural_low": 145.665487, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.05134, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": 0.022348, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.131467, "worst_return": -0.092693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.065346, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.056207, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.164963, "worst_return": -0.163074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.183471, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.053774, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.293177, 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11.5238, "activity_lines": [ 155.737333, 157.22531, 157.142465, 156.892408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 154.46, "volume": 25928304, "typical_volume": 25633614.3, "trend": 156.373496, "fair_value": 120.523972, "relative_strength": -5.238941, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.87459, "energy": 18.147616, "activity_lines": [ 154.340667, 156.813091, 156.871612, 156.770646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 154.22, "volume": 22193711, "typical_volume": 25384005.95, "trend": 156.308517, "fair_value": 120.977381, "relative_strength": -4.915173, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.449532, "energy": 21.248387, "activity_lines": [ 153.794, 156.328182, 156.609689, 156.631711 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 157.34, "volume": 24187903, "typical_volume": 25533826.35, "trend": 156.441306, "fair_value": 121.459417, "relative_strength": -4.112109, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.395792, "energy": 14.548066, "activity_lines": [ 154.926667, 156.287091, 156.666778, 156.698258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 161.36, "volume": 29522820, "typical_volume": 25881918.0, "trend": 156.591133, "fair_value": 121.96247, "relative_strength": -5.02063, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.138369, "energy": 15.254208, "activity_lines": [ 157.272, 156.993818, 157.095226, 157.015593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }