{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1cf3e69-c559-4d53-9829-382c243bbda5", "symbol": "ROCK", "name": "Gibraltar Industries Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.803, "architecture_energy": 38.988, "architecture_maturity": 22.282, "architecture_confidence": 59.222, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.19, "rotation_up": 62.68, "upward_expansion": 50.94, "deceleration": 33.13, "rotation_down": 19.32, "downward_expansion": 11.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.622667, 44.298364, 42.139524, 42.064839 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.23, "trend_reference": 43.544667, "distance_from_trend": 0.153528, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.10125, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.19116, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.886202, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.068262, "excess_performance": -0.255716, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153528, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06654, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.19116, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168787, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128862, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.256342, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068262, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.756206, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2417881, "relative_activity": 1.398562, "balance": 1.756206, "dry_up": 1.068524, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097858, "annualized_volatility": 0.504999, "from_high_reference": -0.33098, "from_low_reference": 0.496722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.544667, "fair_value_reference": 62.10125, "structural_low": 33.56, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.005113, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.04092, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.189721, "worst_return": -0.194511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.046074, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.117049, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.267986, "worst_return": -0.322841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.152823, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.257841, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.203237, 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"Developing", "return": 0.122594, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.197463, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041693, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", 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"close": 45.19, "volume": 1403061, "typical_volume": 1729148.05, "trend": 43.901333, "fair_value": 62.442019, "relative_strength": -18.889205, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.777659, "energy": 28.010248, "activity_lines": [ 43.824667, 42.582, 41.018143, 41.745484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.26, "volume": 2126508, "typical_volume": 1720525.05, "trend": 43.638667, "fair_value": 62.242532, "relative_strength": -23.567602, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.65544, "energy": 12.50604, "activity_lines": [ 43.330667, 42.761818, 41.201667, 41.639591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.23, "volume": 2417881, "typical_volume": 1728833.0, "trend": 43.544667, "fair_value": 62.10125, "relative_strength": -12.886202, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.803058, "energy": 38.988105, "activity_lines": [ 45.622667, 44.298364, 42.139524, 42.064839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }