{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1d91df7-9f62-4133-981f-1cdf40d206fa", "symbol": "MAAT", "name": "MaaT Pharma SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.216, "architecture_energy": 49.944, "architecture_maturity": 76.281, "architecture_confidence": 65.686, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.97, "rotation_up": 27.27, "upward_expansion": 20.85, "deceleration": 65.7, "rotation_down": 42.21, "downward_expansion": 68.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.792333, 2.781545, 3.397048, 4.143462 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.89, "trend_reference": 5.024833, "distance_from_trend": -0.424857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.266506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.538818, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.517783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.581159, "excess_performance": -0.634471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.424857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.538818, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.536398, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.435178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.675853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.581159, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.481905, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 128632, "relative_activity": 0.362705, "balance": 0.481905, "dry_up": 0.345367, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.248336, "annualized_volatility": 1.21908, "from_high_reference": -0.664733, "from_low_reference": 0.151394 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.024833, "fair_value_reference": 6.266506, "structural_low": 2.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.019074, "positive_rate": 0.371429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.006305, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.225806, "worst_return": -0.144737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.012848, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076893, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.123596, "worst_return": -0.175758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.10101, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.057965, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.813131, "worst_return": -0.252525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044025, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.10101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.221053, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070707, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.312941, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.437008, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057971, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.265734, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012259, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.4, "volume": 1197, "typical_volume": 3632.6, "trend": 8.390667, "fair_value": 64.809426, "relative_strength": -28.618634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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-65.38305, "energy": 71.410167, "activity_lines": [ 2.777333, 3.056545, 4.115762, 4.773505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.68, "volume": 149059, "typical_volume": 397352.1, "trend": 5.249667, "fair_value": 6.333974, "relative_strength": -47.009316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.374099, "energy": 63.094592, "activity_lines": [ 2.738333, 2.875273, 3.896857, 4.604344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.725, "volume": 87318, "typical_volume": 370809.75, "trend": 5.191167, "fair_value": 6.311571, "relative_strength": -45.91247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.738779, "energy": 59.253413, "activity_lines": [ 2.731667, 2.773091, 3.703762, 4.441462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.78, "volume": 124924, "typical_volume": 359846.2, "trend": 5.097833, "fair_value": 6.289006, "relative_strength": -45.075369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.426363, "energy": 55.859395, "activity_lines": [ 2.752, 2.763, 3.535405, 4.285903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.89, "volume": 128632, "typical_volume": 354646.3, "trend": 5.024833, "fair_value": 6.266506, "relative_strength": -43.517783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.215998, "energy": 49.943788, "activity_lines": [ 2.792333, 2.781545, 3.397048, 4.143462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }