{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1dae8d3-40df-400b-8d30-3dd68d1f9bcb", "symbol": "KOTAKBANK", "name": "Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 67.302, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.765, "architecture_energy": 11.264, "architecture_maturity": 24.202, "architecture_confidence": 59.359, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.06, "rotation_up": 12.58, "upward_expansion": 19.73, "deceleration": 65.07, "rotation_down": 42.49, "downward_expansion": 53.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 387.78995, 390.194592, 388.333697, 387.72656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 390.75, "trend_reference": 391.599246, "distance_from_trend": -0.002169, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 381.338135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024681, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.205307, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.074819, "excess_performance": -0.03111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002169, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02277, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022053, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018219, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074819, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.085207, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49913876, "relative_activity": 0.72995, "balance": 1.085207, "dry_up": 0.961298, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038604, "annualized_volatility": 0.221503, "from_high_reference": -0.137798, "from_low_reference": 0.13097 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 391.599246, "fair_value_reference": 381.338135, "structural_low": 345.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.015032, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.005795, "regime_survival": 0.35, "best_return": 0.098537, "worst_return": -0.127897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.018149, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.029219, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.105081, "worst_return": -0.088288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009035, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.02174, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.204663, "worst_return": -0.080012, 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"energy": 22.443236, "activity_lines": [ 386.587646, 390.182363, 387.605256, 387.85578 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 390.75, "volume": 49913876, "typical_volume": 68379870.1, "trend": 391.599246, "fair_value": 381.338135, "relative_strength": -2.205307, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.76548, "energy": 11.263871, "activity_lines": [ 387.78995, 390.194592, 388.333697, 387.72656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }