{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1dc8559-1204-4dff-b8e2-4d8d99f0ada3", "symbol": "HDGE", "name": "Accelerate Absolute Return Fund", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.356, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.819, "architecture_energy": 8.902, "architecture_maturity": 15.151, "architecture_confidence": 68.624, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.87, "rotation_up": 39.36, "upward_expansion": 34.16, "deceleration": 37.25, "rotation_down": 28.56, "downward_expansion": 22.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.547333, 27.534698, 27.390939, 27.412658 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.41, "trend_reference": 27.417209, "distance_from_trend": -0.000263, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.806878, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06212, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.75503, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.00143, "excess_performance": -0.118991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000263, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000716, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002167, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10755, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.00143, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.734694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4600, "relative_activity": 3.445693, "balance": 0.734694, "dry_up": 1.161049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018712, "annualized_volatility": 0.145183, "from_high_reference": -0.047603, "from_low_reference": 0.057234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.417209, "fair_value_reference": 25.806878, "structural_low": 26.075796, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.012982, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010003, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.045768, "worst_return": -0.042548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044202, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016502, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121955, "worst_return": 0.003097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.07796, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019948, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.267159, "worst_return": 0.014839, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 5830.0, "trend": 27.401669, "fair_value": 25.575886, "relative_strength": -7.732607, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.761808, "energy": 24.596939, "activity_lines": [ 27.581689, 27.260252, 27.357021, 27.386622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.09, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3110.0, "trend": 27.392967, "fair_value": 25.614163, "relative_strength": -10.712553, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.07552, "energy": 20.748998, "activity_lines": [ 27.513226, 27.241741, 27.320458, 27.366514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.68, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 3150.0, "trend": 27.403269, "fair_value": 25.655975, "relative_strength": -8.585051, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.905846, "energy": 22.854139, "activity_lines": [ 27.589093, 27.343413, 27.343937, 27.385033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.18, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3100.0, "trend": 27.387638, "fair_value": 25.6936, "relative_strength": -9.792011, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.600318, "energy": 8.666597, "activity_lines": [ 27.44781, 27.349646, 27.322406, 27.370628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.6, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 3055.0, "trend": 27.391964, "fair_value": 25.732503, "relative_strength": -8.350672, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.20953, "energy": 6.555916, "activity_lines": [ 27.455947, 27.425391, 27.34724, 27.384329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.83, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 1505.0, "trend": 27.408929, "fair_value": 25.772573, "relative_strength": -6.830519, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.528965, "energy": 20.751706, "activity_lines": [ 27.569333, 27.530279, 27.39061, 27.412589 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.41, "volume": 4600, "typical_volume": 1335.0, "trend": 27.417209, "fair_value": 25.806878, "relative_strength": -10.75503, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.818602, "energy": 8.901763, "activity_lines": [ 27.547333, 27.534698, 27.390939, 27.412658 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }