{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1e7aadf-7979-4521-9ef8-7deac66c0148", "symbol": "RILYZ", "name": "B. Riley Financial Inc. 5.25% Senior Notes due 2028", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.516, "architecture_energy": 44.084, "architecture_maturity": 22.371, "architecture_confidence": 82.869, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.45, "rotation_up": 53.34, "upward_expansion": 78.61, "deceleration": 62.64, "rotation_down": 23.09, "downward_expansion": 5.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.165378, 18.96384, 18.908639, 18.320034 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.35, "trend_reference": 17.509414, "distance_from_trend": 0.10512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.331394, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.707645, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.069203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.263444, "excess_performance": 0.07599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.10512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.707645, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.160692, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.263444, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.393253, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97868, "relative_activity": 0.493436, "balance": 1.393253, "dry_up": 0.870511, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045122, "annualized_volatility": 0.239405, "from_high_reference": -0.06068, "from_low_reference": 1.326943 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.509414, "fair_value_reference": 11.331394, "structural_low": 15.128891, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.00456, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.167188, "worst_return": -0.152738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.110093, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.181672, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.17866, "worst_return": -0.3898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.020489, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.203854, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.34245, "worst_return": -0.375909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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18.578201, 18.905972, 18.582682, 17.905717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.0, "volume": 130924, "typical_volume": 192280.3, "trend": 17.0741, "fair_value": 11.260233, "relative_strength": 21.935412, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.916995, "energy": 23.16379, "activity_lines": [ 18.70452, 18.875079, 18.686398, 18.045627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.31, "volume": 267576, "typical_volume": 198261.95, "trend": 17.332588, "fair_value": 11.295473, "relative_strength": 22.42626, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.045073, "energy": 39.324855, "activity_lines": [ 18.965751, 18.913096, 18.805219, 18.189878 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.35, "volume": 97868, "typical_volume": 198339.9, "trend": 17.509414, "fair_value": 11.331394, "relative_strength": 16.069203, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.51647, "energy": 44.083783, "activity_lines": [ 19.165378, 18.96384, 18.908639, 18.320034 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }