{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1e7f560-4600-492b-b75a-37d249f5e81a", "symbol": "301005", "name": "Essence Fastening Systems (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.162, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.193, "architecture_energy": 79.474, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.588, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.19, "rotation_up": 13.52, "upward_expansion": 23.68, "deceleration": 31.34, "rotation_down": 72.94, "downward_expansion": 90.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.169999, 85.564727, 97.524831, 102.77935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 81.029999, "trend_reference": 110.509265, "distance_from_trend": -0.266758, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.616945, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.99498, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.030603, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.361646, "excess_performance": -0.369046, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.266758, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115915, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.99498, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.17661, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.895839, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.361646, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551034, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57835804, "relative_activity": 1.167306, "balance": 0.551034, "dry_up": 1.043265, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.220494, "annualized_volatility": 0.949923, "from_high_reference": -0.503263, "from_low_reference": 1.725075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 110.509265, "fair_value_reference": 40.616945, "structural_low": 56.880001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.20024, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.084107, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20024, "worst_return": 0.20024, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.270983, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.150633, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.270983, "worst_return": 0.270983, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.310552, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.195734, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.310552, "worst_return": 0.310552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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104.293802, 111.100801, 112.51109, 112.828852 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 110.18, "volume": 16954584, "typical_volume": 54626400.95, "trend": 108.3414, "fair_value": 37.96367, "relative_strength": 28.172396, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.071114, "energy": 29.134235, "activity_lines": [ 105.772573, 110.123633, 112.160349, 113.105042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 118.639999, "volume": 21145057, "typical_volume": 51434571.5, "trend": 110.71639, "fair_value": 38.622376, "relative_strength": 37.113302, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.440548, "energy": 8.169993, "activity_lines": [ 110.467333, 110.862089, 112.695112, 113.769467 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 114.879997, "volume": 73625030, "typical_volume": 51314387.25, "trend": 112.88918, "fair_value": 39.255509, "relative_strength": 35.175956, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.83837, "energy": 4.852581, "activity_lines": [ 112.775999, 110.953772, 112.866986, 114.038087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 68.720001, "volume": 67894588, "typical_volume": 51207127.6, "trend": 112.876726, "fair_value": 39.595895, "relative_strength": -12.022777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.238327, "energy": 45.228838, "activity_lines": [ 98.983333, 102.830388, 108.631134, 111.188463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.599998, "volume": 45234755, "typical_volume": 50022007.35, "trend": 112.661223, "fair_value": 39.892149, "relative_strength": -20.81133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.82347, "energy": 74.476538, "activity_lines": [ 85.331999, 94.899763, 104.082844, 107.944803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.07, "volume": 35794940, "typical_volume": 49126907.6, "trend": 111.503301, "fair_value": 40.193377, "relative_strength": -19.673329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.26053, "energy": 83.313933, "activity_lines": [ 74.687333, 88.117247, 99.849742, 104.745369 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.029999, "volume": 57835804, "typical_volume": 49546405.25, "trend": 110.509265, "fair_value": 40.616945, "relative_strength": -3.030603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.192634, "energy": 79.473914, "activity_lines": [ 73.169999, 85.564727, 97.524831, 102.77935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }