{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1f008ef-bead-4228-a2cc-f47b61bf21f9", "symbol": "JM", "name": "JM AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 52.679, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.887, "architecture_energy": 9.462, "architecture_maturity": 23.156, "architecture_confidence": 42.608, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.22, "rotation_up": 24.55, "upward_expansion": 27.54, "deceleration": 66.35, "rotation_down": 40.95, "downward_expansion": 27.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 123.946665, 125.581817, 122.886269, 122.383058 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 127.0, "trend_reference": 124.095835, "distance_from_trend": 0.023403, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 151.40589, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161195, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.884805, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055916, "excess_performance": -0.11741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023403, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024941, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161195, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08302, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055916, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.500559, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 743661, "relative_activity": 0.642466, "balance": 0.500559, "dry_up": 0.900779, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073228, "annualized_volatility": 0.437118, "from_high_reference": -0.16677, "from_low_reference": 0.203641 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 124.095835, "fair_value_reference": 151.40589, "structural_low": 105.51316, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.020198, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.011471, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.180709, "worst_return": -0.132353, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.036691, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.068815, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.259259, "worst_return": -0.166869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.115924, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.194397, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.295238, "worst_return": -0.182651, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 121.699997, "volume": 634246, "typical_volume": 1199230.55, "trend": 125.078022, "fair_value": 151.805443, "relative_strength": -14.840781, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.158512, "energy": 23.321274, "activity_lines": [ 126.399998, 124.91818, 121.921879, 122.356824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.099998, "volume": 539211, "typical_volume": 1180416.55, "trend": 124.615347, "fair_value": 151.589534, "relative_strength": -14.485508, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.874481, "energy": 10.190197, "activity_lines": [ 124.246665, 124.974544, 122.226752, 122.22921 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.0, "volume": 743661, "typical_volume": 1157510.0, "trend": 124.095835, "fair_value": 151.40589, "relative_strength": -12.884805, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.886593, "energy": 9.461549, "activity_lines": [ 123.946665, 125.581817, 122.886269, 122.383058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }