{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1f630c6-c418-44cb-81d9-ab08cee5f837", "symbol": "002871", "name": "Qingdao Weflo Valve Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.753, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.953, "architecture_energy": 70.22, "architecture_maturity": 11.914, "architecture_confidence": 77.364, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.18, "rotation_up": 8.13, "upward_expansion": 14.76, "deceleration": 37.76, "rotation_down": 71.61, "downward_expansion": 85.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.175334, 17.682, 18.577754, 18.703261 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.610001, "trend_reference": 18.95956, "distance_from_trend": -0.123925, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.058838, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.377413, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.770368, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.185385, "excess_performance": -0.192785, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123925, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053862, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.377413, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.407143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169322, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.905321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19785624, "relative_activity": 0.942695, "balance": 0.905321, "dry_up": 0.949756, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136812, "annualized_volatility": 0.496547, "from_high_reference": -0.268282, "from_low_reference": 0.5976 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.95956, "fair_value_reference": 12.058838, "structural_low": 13.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.009246, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013857, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.136752, "worst_return": -0.101918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.107011, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.126142, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.110326, "worst_return": 0.044291, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.016624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072133, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115375, "worst_return": -0.148622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.298618, "energy": 6.700332, "activity_lines": [ 19.138667, 19.760999, 19.459994, 19.341262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.18, "volume": 21048908, "typical_volume": 20526565.8, "trend": 19.04156, "fair_value": 11.999501, "relative_strength": -12.874806, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.551352, "energy": 37.755094, "activity_lines": [ 17.596, 18.868533, 19.087914, 19.090193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.44, "volume": 17696525, "typical_volume": 20564724.15, "trend": 19.005893, "fair_value": 12.02474, "relative_strength": -10.348291, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.719494, "energy": 65.130937, "activity_lines": [ 16.474, 18.121958, 18.768596, 18.857835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.610001, "volume": 19785624, "typical_volume": 20988368.3, "trend": 18.95956, "fair_value": 12.058838, "relative_strength": -8.770368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.952723, "energy": 70.220121, "activity_lines": [ 16.175334, 17.682, 18.577754, 18.703261 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }