{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a20490ce-932a-4df0-993b-a68ee643699e",
    "symbol": "MHJ",
    "name": "Michael Hill International Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 67.804,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -32.655,
    "architecture_energy": 16.869,
    "architecture_maturity": 57.932,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.689,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 48.53,
        "rotation_up": 26.55,
        "upward_expansion": 18.18,
        "deceleration": 46.06,
        "rotation_down": 24.07,
        "downward_expansion": 54.52
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        0.339273,
        0.34081,
        0.354086
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 0.35,
    "trend_reference": 0.3705,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.055331,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.522196,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.329753,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -8.950956,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.113924,
    "excess_performance": -0.17763,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.055331,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008917,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.329753,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.026083,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08951,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.043403,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.113924,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.068565,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1346371,
      "relative_activity": 2.698083,
      "balance": 1.068565,
      "dry_up": 1.30696,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.072527,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.432825,
      "from_high_reference": -0.263158,
      "from_low_reference": 0.166667
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.3705,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.522196,
      "structural_low": 0.3,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": -0.006136,
        "positive_rate": 0.483871,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.516129,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010876,
        "regime_survival": 0.741935,
        "best_return": 0.22449,
        "worst_return": -0.241935,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.021787,
        "positive_rate": 0.636364,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.363636,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017954,
        "regime_survival": 0.272727,
        "best_return": 0.298507,
        "worst_return": -0.370907,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.096429,
        "positive_rate": 0.285714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.114304,
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        "worst_return": -0.304686,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.443022,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 493271.35,
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        "fair_value": 0.532093,
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        "stage": 4,
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        "direction": -38.249222,
        "energy": 23.451248,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.34,
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          0.345381,
          0.360043
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 0.325,
        "volume": 151717,
        "typical_volume": 481171.45,
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        "fair_value": 0.528707,
        "relative_strength": -11.468969,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -45.959902,
        "energy": 26.903869,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.336333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.35,
        "volume": 805896,
        "typical_volume": 490294.05,
        "trend": 0.3715,
        "fair_value": 0.525482,
        "relative_strength": -6.422401,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -34.911021,
        "energy": 19.929088,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.340667,
          0.335818,
          0.341071,
          0.355473
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.35,
        "volume": 1346371,
        "typical_volume": 499010.15,
        "trend": 0.3705,
        "fair_value": 0.522196,
        "relative_strength": -8.950956,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -32.655163,
        "energy": 16.8694,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}