{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a207399e-33ed-4ef8-8389-66268ae308a9", "symbol": "MVF", "name": "Monash IVF Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.905, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.635, "architecture_energy": 30.91, "architecture_maturity": 21.212, "architecture_confidence": 64.661, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.91, "rotation_up": 19.56, "upward_expansion": 22.56, "deceleration": 49.96, "rotation_down": 52.8, "downward_expansion": 45.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.685667, 0.692182, 0.701095, 0.697383 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.685, "trend_reference": 0.695537, "distance_from_trend": -0.01515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.990686, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.30856, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.355137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0181, "excess_performance": -0.045606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01515, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017083, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.30856, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038926, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118093, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0181, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.44604, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2643117, "relative_activity": 1.113721, "balance": 0.44604, "dry_up": 0.887286, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04913, "annualized_volatility": 0.292031, "from_high_reference": -0.220784, "from_low_reference": 0.212866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.695537, "fair_value_reference": 0.990686, "structural_low": 0.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.021065, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.277778, "median_excess_return": -0.008423, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115152, "worst_return": -0.345454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.094463, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.072836, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.163834, "worst_return": -0.431818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02238, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.054947, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.275265, "worst_return": -0.482767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.174416, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.130272, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.275674, "worst_return": -0.417188, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008097, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043479, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042363, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.20853, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089552, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041177, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013607, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067115, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037879, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006849, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014388, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.080886, "volume": 3527164, "typical_volume": 3560342.05, "trend": 1.010574, "fair_value": 0.824649, "relative_strength": 14.152647, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.069807, "energy": 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"energy": 8.403451, "activity_lines": [ 0.703667, 0.703636, 0.705881, 0.701025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.655, "volume": 1972178, "typical_volume": 2426194.15, "trend": 0.698482, "fair_value": 0.995433, "relative_strength": -7.053304, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.635284, "energy": 41.249513, "activity_lines": [ 0.686667, 0.694273, 0.702, 0.698076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7, "volume": 2137478, "typical_volume": 2315192.55, "trend": 0.697259, "fair_value": 0.993049, "relative_strength": -2.646919, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.788857, "energy": 26.514713, "activity_lines": [ 0.688333, 0.694455, 0.702429, 0.698174 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.685, "volume": 2643117, "typical_volume": 2373231.6, "trend": 0.695537, "fair_value": 0.990686, "relative_strength": -7.355137, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.634679, "energy": 30.909607, "activity_lines": [ 0.685667, 0.692182, 0.701095, 0.697383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }