{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2089d19-20db-46f6-a3b0-0665a75465aa", "symbol": "BDEC", "name": "Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - December", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.634, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.047, "architecture_energy": 69.148, "architecture_maturity": 43.273, "architecture_confidence": 83.184, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.53, "rotation_up": 64.24, "upward_expansion": 87.51, "deceleration": 52.12, "rotation_down": 24.87, "downward_expansion": 11.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.735153, 53.424162, 52.944667, 52.144504 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 54.5884, "trend_reference": 51.239003, "distance_from_trend": 0.065368, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.051833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239186, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.575884, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092642, "excess_performance": -0.032983, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065368, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026942, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239186, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008615, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025759, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -5.6e-05, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092642, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.902237, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22452, "relative_activity": 0.233815, "balance": 6.902237, "dry_up": 0.255312, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014804, "annualized_volatility": 0.098752, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.188252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.239003, "fair_value_reference": 44.051833, "structural_low": 46.835, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.009609, "positive_rate": 0.704545, "directional_follow_through": 0.704545, "median_excess_return": -0.003183, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.049628, "worst_return": -0.045303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.02997, "positive_rate": 0.8125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.005466, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.075935, "worst_return": -0.024808, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.062103, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.016335, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.105734, "worst_return": -0.104474, "sufficient": true }, { 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"trend": 50.734, "fair_value": 43.618836, "relative_strength": -2.208469, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.018459, "energy": 60.845072, "activity_lines": [ 53.113447, 52.984529, 52.138312, 51.456185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.2235, "volume": 20031, "typical_volume": 99554.5, "trend": 50.859117, "fair_value": 43.723777, "relative_strength": -1.341744, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.084241, "energy": 58.609553, "activity_lines": [ 53.18512, 53.048169, 52.333425, 51.616798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.9781, "volume": 36794, "typical_volume": 98801.0, "trend": 50.95972, "fair_value": 43.825033, "relative_strength": -1.17862, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.94838, "energy": 59.536227, "activity_lines": [ 53.145833, 53.052875, 52.488911, 51.753507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.5235, "volume": 18788, "typical_volume": 98466.0, "trend": 51.091723, "fair_value": 43.934633, "relative_strength": -1.19031, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.397819, "energy": 59.630685, "activity_lines": [ 53.304127, 53.148015, 52.678017, 51.918912 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.5884, "volume": 22452, "typical_volume": 96024.65, "trend": 51.239003, "fair_value": 44.051833, "relative_strength": -2.575884, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.047044, "energy": 69.148431, "activity_lines": [ 53.735153, 53.424162, 52.944667, 52.144504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }