{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a20bf891-a1e5-4940-a05c-8f0c071e08b8", "symbol": "BRAV3", "name": "Brava Energia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.044, "architecture_energy": 9.814, "architecture_maturity": 20.852, "architecture_confidence": 60.257, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.73, "rotation_up": 39.36, "upward_expansion": 60.95, "deceleration": 60.17, "rotation_down": 20.66, "downward_expansion": 15.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.37, 19.328182, 19.437971, 19.315458 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.27, "trend_reference": 19.023641, "distance_from_trend": -0.039616, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.34394, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.182329, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.219491, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051566, "excess_performance": 0.108614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039616, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090851, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.182329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068226, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150609, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.944417, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59751000, "relative_activity": 1.522388, "balance": 1.944417, "dry_up": 1.177164, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080628, "annualized_volatility": 0.462517, "from_high_reference": -0.174983, "from_low_reference": 0.383098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.023641, "fair_value_reference": 22.34394, "structural_low": 16.280754, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.003988, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.005279, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.196316, "worst_return": -0.191718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.038372, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.078414, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.023483, "worst_return": -0.204648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.205392, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.265907, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.07093, "worst_return": -0.237926, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.57, "volume": 36823200, "typical_volume": 40159910.0, "trend": 18.700349, "fair_value": 22.631851, "relative_strength": 3.196189, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.348784, "energy": 15.485902, "activity_lines": [ 18.983333, 19.380909, 19.381532, 19.174546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.639999, "volume": 30442800, "typical_volume": 39050340.0, "trend": 18.858909, "fair_value": 22.541228, "relative_strength": 9.145553, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.435231, "energy": 18.675705, "activity_lines": [ 19.555333, 19.581636, 19.50869, 19.299685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.8, "volume": 57789300, "typical_volume": 39128810.0, "trend": 18.966609, "fair_value": 22.43716, "relative_strength": 3.001007, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.549492, "energy": 26.866378, "activity_lines": [ 19.737333, 19.594182, 19.550946, 19.3604 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.27, "volume": 59751000, "typical_volume": 39248195.0, "trend": 19.023641, "fair_value": 22.34394, "relative_strength": -1.219491, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.044107, "energy": 9.813888, "activity_lines": [ 19.37, 19.328182, 19.437971, 19.315458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }