{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a20c9857-4cc1-41e3-ae36-d84e21c2aad9", "symbol": "AZM", "name": "Azimut Holding S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.335, "architecture_energy": 46.004, "architecture_maturity": 25.92, "architecture_confidence": 59.517, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.02, "rotation_up": 47.72, "upward_expansion": 74.53, "deceleration": 66.77, "rotation_down": 23.66, "downward_expansion": 5.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.678666, 36.456181, 35.766458, 34.961544 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.099998, "trend_reference": 34.223789, "distance_from_trend": 0.113261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.098196, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.518037, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.806113, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115813, "excess_performance": -0.055079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031386, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.518037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.090788, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.008061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023219, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115813, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.136205, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2620050, "relative_activity": 1.130752, "balance": 1.136205, "dry_up": 1.040254, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041907, "annualized_volatility": 0.242488, "from_high_reference": -0.0188, "from_low_reference": 0.363687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.223789, "fair_value_reference": 25.098196, "structural_low": 28.995391, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.017689, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006511, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.09672, "worst_return": -0.112164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019977, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018536, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.269663, "worst_return": -0.115643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.039575, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007066, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.211529, "worst_return": -0.234101, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.090685, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.030089, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.364896, "worst_return": -0.079753, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054052, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029973, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034731, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035606, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.110084, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.257366, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.332817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", 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24.619035, "relative_strength": -3.61712, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.307269, "energy": 57.327607, "activity_lines": [ 36.375334, 35.933457, 34.913548, 34.338118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.849998, "volume": 2425633, "typical_volume": 2636534.4, "trend": 33.960476, "fair_value": 24.738548, "relative_strength": -3.281199, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.667528, "energy": 38.820402, "activity_lines": [ 36.153333, 36.018909, 35.100504, 34.464804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.939999, "volume": 1833038, "typical_volume": 2465481.85, "trend": 34.004566, "fair_value": 24.844769, "relative_strength": -5.559018, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.185269, "energy": 27.505182, "activity_lines": [ 35.685999, 35.897454, 35.187691, 34.527999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.73, "volume": 2762710, "typical_volume": 2354207.9, "trend": 34.105493, "fair_value": 24.967363, "relative_strength": -1.476951, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.851982, "energy": 30.682699, "activity_lines": [ 35.987333, 36.070545, 35.427108, 34.703834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.099998, "volume": 2620050, "typical_volume": 2317085.95, "trend": 34.223789, "fair_value": 25.098196, "relative_strength": -0.806113, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.334653, "energy": 46.004496, "activity_lines": [ 36.678666, 36.456181, 35.766458, 34.961544 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }