{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a21d2bf6-cdfc-40ac-b82a-919292ada4c6", "symbol": "301169", "name": "Beijing Dataway Horizon Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.491, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -29.106, "architecture_energy": 66.523, "architecture_maturity": 14.484, "architecture_confidence": 75.193, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.44, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 30.21, "deceleration": 49.11, "rotation_down": 71.79, "downward_expansion": 57.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.466, 57.377454, 65.433285, 65.087182 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 55.68, "trend_reference": 64.077333, "distance_from_trend": -0.13105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.219743, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20468, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.723729, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048368, "excess_performance": -0.055768, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100758, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20468, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.681134, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.438457, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048368, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551893, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14212877, "relative_activity": 1.926118, "balance": 0.551893, "dry_up": 1.398732, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.172331, "annualized_volatility": 0.690695, "from_high_reference": -0.440402, "from_low_reference": 0.427692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.077333, "fair_value_reference": 46.219743, "structural_low": 39.799999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.215513, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.147636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.486934, "worst_return": -0.070696, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.055287, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018788, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.31695, "worst_return": -0.226682, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.038951, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.076889, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148148, "worst_return": -0.070247, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040872, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019869, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17525, "active": false 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.839862, "energy": 18.289269, "activity_lines": [ 69.563332, 74.363817, 72.440142, 68.92772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 50.439999, "volume": 8536543, "typical_volume": 6999581.95, "trend": 64.074999, "fair_value": 46.156026, "relative_strength": -8.49294, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.149661, "energy": 40.16186, "activity_lines": [ 62.524665, 69.274362, 70.742047, 68.057117 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.700001, "volume": 10024246, "typical_volume": 7115759.3, "trend": 64.057666, "fair_value": 46.162884, "relative_strength": -15.500991, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.275297, "energy": 56.674308, "activity_lines": [ 55.797333, 64.108726, 68.727952, 66.93615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.610001, "volume": 8511467, "typical_volume": 7066290.9, "trend": 63.891333, "fair_value": 46.144679, "relative_strength": -19.716351, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.570523, "energy": 72.459015, "activity_lines": [ 50.166667, 59.216908, 66.472952, 65.616946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.68, "volume": 14212877, "typical_volume": 7379027.1, "trend": 64.077333, "fair_value": 46.219743, "relative_strength": -2.723729, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.105877, "energy": 66.522584, "activity_lines": [ 50.466, 57.377454, 65.433285, 65.087182 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }