{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2225169-4e5b-4b9a-84ae-20c01dc8a620", "symbol": "LCJP", "name": "Amundi Core MSCI Japan UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.409, "architecture_energy": 34.447, "architecture_maturity": 57.784, "architecture_confidence": 79.029, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.4, "rotation_up": 39.21, "upward_expansion": 65.87, "deceleration": 85.42, "rotation_down": 26.77, "downward_expansion": 15.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.56, 22.585182, 22.247462, 21.847942 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.165001, "trend_reference": 21.372867, "distance_from_trend": 0.083851, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.484026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324924, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.466174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.115848, "excess_performance": -0.055044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083851, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057253, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324924, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042205, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115848, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.62869, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244132, "relative_activity": 0.854666, "balance": 4.62869, "dry_up": 0.854753, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03231, "annualized_volatility": 0.198191, "from_high_reference": -0.00494, "from_low_reference": 0.313358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.372867, "fair_value_reference": 17.484026, "structural_low": 19.198, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023657, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.009497, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.085162, "worst_return": -0.041248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.004109, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15709, "worst_return": -0.066004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.014425, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.110993, "worst_return": -0.08416, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"trend": 20.952933, "fair_value": 17.275782, "relative_strength": -0.185349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.512533, "energy": 81.907646, "activity_lines": [ 22.855, 22.555636, 21.894486, 21.514523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.875, "volume": 245344, "typical_volume": 337778.45, "trend": 21.049833, "fair_value": 17.325212, "relative_strength": -3.583787, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.116356, "energy": 48.812792, "activity_lines": [ 22.557, 22.480182, 21.940629, 21.574011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.365, "volume": 314408, "typical_volume": 320931.6, "trend": 21.1622, "fair_value": 17.374833, "relative_strength": -1.325854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.833934, "energy": 38.133342, "activity_lines": [ 22.439333, 22.488091, 22.032319, 21.65886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.195, "volume": 172743, "typical_volume": 307226.35, "trend": 21.267033, "fair_value": 17.426122, "relative_strength": -2.775459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.328266, "energy": 27.162386, "activity_lines": [ 22.323333, 22.451909, 22.098509, 21.725492 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.165001, "volume": 244132, "typical_volume": 285646.1, "trend": 21.372867, "fair_value": 17.484026, "relative_strength": -1.466174, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.409128, "energy": 34.446942, "activity_lines": [ 22.56, 22.585182, 22.247462, 21.847942 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }