{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a22b79d3-0c94-440a-b9b4-aacc3dfe87a2", "symbol": "300219", "name": "Hongli Zhihui Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.794, "architecture_energy": 66.174, "architecture_maturity": 12.564, "architecture_confidence": 76.747, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.16, "rotation_up": 8.25, "upward_expansion": 13.28, "deceleration": 38.4, "rotation_down": 73.11, "downward_expansion": 86.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.689333, 7.356917, 7.708802, 7.762101 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.95, "trend_reference": 7.783229, "distance_from_trend": -0.107054, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.991197, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005893, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.474273, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075798, "excess_performance": -0.083198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107054, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020887, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005893, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153747, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009106, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075798, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.955481, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81489485, "relative_activity": 0.641625, "balance": 0.955481, "dry_up": 0.819297, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157565, "annualized_volatility": 0.560344, "from_high_reference": -0.325897, "from_low_reference": 0.172007 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.783229, "fair_value_reference": 6.991197, "structural_low": 5.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.004059, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01534, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171629, "worst_return": -0.134907, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.082544, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.148439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.059545, "worst_return": -0.338954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.05421, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108254, "worst_return": -0.100337, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.099217, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11128, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052559, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.118397, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014948, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154971, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.059936, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.193809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.23234, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049849, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 7.004595, "volume": 36078285, "typical_volume": 44650476.0, "trend": 7.209702, "fair_value": 9.640249, "relative_strength": -3.070825, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 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2.203811, "energy": 7.067413, "activity_lines": [ 7.892667, 8.200235, 8.096281, 8.006533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.09, "volume": 96245434, "typical_volume": 141397648.6, "trend": 7.812896, "fair_value": 6.995066, "relative_strength": -19.193594, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.085205, "energy": 37.935522, "activity_lines": [ 7.129333, 7.800569, 7.913296, 7.893378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.62, "volume": 93936944, "typical_volume": 131979951.9, "trend": 7.791896, "fair_value": 6.991236, "relative_strength": -10.528443, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.165154, "energy": 43.566251, "activity_lines": [ 6.74, 7.533118, 7.791168, 7.816417 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.95, "volume": 81489485, "typical_volume": 127004865.6, "trend": 7.783229, "fair_value": 6.991197, "relative_strength": -10.474273, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.793558, "energy": 66.174382, "activity_lines": [ 6.689333, 7.356917, 7.708802, 7.762101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }