{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a22d0392-df1e-4b41-868c-e189e3f80355", "symbol": "FIE", "name": "Fielmann Group AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 66.722, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.41, "architecture_energy": 48.057, "architecture_maturity": 9.287, "architecture_confidence": 92.358, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.58, "rotation_up": 15.49, "upward_expansion": 9.17, "deceleration": 41.38, "rotation_down": 55.16, "downward_expansion": 80.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.77, 41.09801, 41.949376, 42.441608 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.099998, "trend_reference": 42.788428, "distance_from_trend": -0.016089, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.318294, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050054, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.670828, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.06464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016089, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050054, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000692, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.989994, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 274467, "relative_activity": 1.077861, "balance": 0.989994, "dry_up": 1.416115, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055317, "annualized_volatility": 0.302401, "from_high_reference": -0.261404, "from_low_reference": 0.086452 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.788428, "fair_value_reference": 44.318294, "structural_low": 38.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.001216, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.02428, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.156158, "worst_return": -0.156147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.006927, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.02962, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.178065, "worst_return": -0.218194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028539, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.090479, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.313939, "worst_return": -0.274361, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 43.055095, "fair_value": 44.385748, "relative_strength": -15.587294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.467627, "energy": 56.861814, "activity_lines": [ 41.02643, 41.779983, 42.554893, 42.873346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.400002, "volume": 346868, "typical_volume": 309070.8, "trend": 42.943428, "fair_value": 44.348394, "relative_strength": -16.567792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.862445, "energy": 64.747792, "activity_lines": [ 40.352718, 41.255386, 42.210832, 42.637534 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.65, "volume": 291014, "typical_volume": 296625.25, "trend": 42.843428, "fair_value": 44.330724, "relative_strength": -15.025297, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.798143, "energy": 61.906466, "activity_lines": [ 40.269574, 41.015335, 42.006533, 42.489571 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.099998, "volume": 274467, "typical_volume": 254640.35, "trend": 42.788428, "fair_value": 44.318294, "relative_strength": -13.670828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.410331, "energy": 48.056602, "activity_lines": [ 40.77, 41.09801, 41.949376, 42.441608 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }