{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a22ec356-dca1-4085-802f-905d86bc07fb", "symbol": "RCDC", "name": "RBC Canadian Dividend Covered Call ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.12, "architecture_energy": 63.162, "architecture_maturity": 62.532, "architecture_confidence": 84.81, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.03, "rotation_up": 61.05, "upward_expansion": 87.28, "deceleration": 63.95, "rotation_down": 24.69, "downward_expansion": 11.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.919118, 26.765771, 26.240352, 25.712724 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 26.82, "trend_reference": 25.03232, "distance_from_trend": 0.071415, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.930889, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.34565, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.435489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.135391, "excess_performance": 0.01497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071415, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054519, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.34565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039988, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004355, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012648, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.478541, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6400, "relative_activity": 0.617463, "balance": 1.478541, "dry_up": 0.841775, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021133, "annualized_volatility": 0.08625, "from_high_reference": -0.022466, "from_low_reference": 0.307716 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.03232, "fair_value_reference": 19.930889, "structural_low": 23.254887, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.016284, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.003804, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.061269, "worst_return": -0.034323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055049, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.010562, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.126779, "worst_return": -0.014119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.119442, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.024575, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.169405, "worst_return": 0.044176, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.239351, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020303, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.31587, "worst_return": 0.162832, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088453, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007201, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036654, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004985, "active": false }, { "regime": 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19.860904, "relative_strength": 4.224396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.106784, "energy": 66.379557, "activity_lines": [ 26.933115, 26.700904, 26.116032, 25.589759 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.82, "volume": 6400, "typical_volume": 10365.0, "trend": 25.03232, "fair_value": 19.930889, "relative_strength": 0.435489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.119811, "energy": 63.161692, "activity_lines": [ 26.919118, 26.765771, 26.240352, 25.712724 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }