{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2312e9e-548a-4dd7-af25-7497006b7994", "symbol": "601375", "name": "Central China Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 62.371, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -4.665, "architecture_energy": 12.74, "architecture_maturity": 8.16, "architecture_confidence": 83.905, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.6, "rotation_up": 36.99, "upward_expansion": 34.61, "deceleration": 34.59, "rotation_down": 18.21, "downward_expansion": 40.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.106, 4.064, 4.02881, 4.05443 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.12, "trend_reference": 4.12, "distance_from_trend": 0.0, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.05232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016702, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.174776, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.059361, "excess_performance": -0.016157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028531, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007379, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031748, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103957, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.059361, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005043, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183182152, "relative_activity": 1.121534, "balance": 1.005043, "dry_up": 1.430661, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048544, "annualized_volatility": 0.1506, "from_high_reference": -0.157722, "from_low_reference": 0.107527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.12, "fair_value_reference": 4.05232, "structural_low": 3.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.002681, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.004086, "regime_survival": 0.294118, "best_return": 0.135667, "worst_return": -0.088036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.021448, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.009422, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.137581, "worst_return": -0.088036, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011579, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.021063, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.135291, "worst_return": -0.215671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -24.993132, "energy": 15.015392, "activity_lines": [ 4.038, 4.002182, 4.003524, 4.059161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.04, "volume": 257204014, "typical_volume": 160932892.45, "trend": 4.133, "fair_value": 4.04725, "relative_strength": -2.533056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.342416, "energy": 12.917007, "activity_lines": [ 4.046667, 4.012909, 4.004429, 4.05243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.17, "volume": 221142375, "typical_volume": 163895411.4, "trend": 4.126, "fair_value": 4.050135, "relative_strength": 0.438056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.793653, "energy": 10.715494, "activity_lines": [ 4.092, 4.045455, 4.01881, 4.054817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.12, "volume": 183182152, "typical_volume": 163331773.55, "trend": 4.12, "fair_value": 4.05232, "relative_strength": -3.174776, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.665045, "energy": 12.740059, "activity_lines": [ 4.106, 4.064, 4.02881, 4.05443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }