{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a23bb17a-fb2b-4279-af09-b8fe8f187ffe", "symbol": "ECN", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy Low Carbon 100 Europe PAB UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.452, "architecture_energy": 80.057, "architecture_maturity": 31.731, "architecture_confidence": 85.435, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 71.2, "upward_expansion": 94.65, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 22.02, "downward_expansion": 16.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 301.970005, 299.970002, 294.158335, 289.564088 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 305.950012, "trend_reference": 284.861668, "distance_from_trend": 0.07403, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 257.49676, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.18817, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.382049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.09346, "excess_performance": 0.040148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07403, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.18817, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069952, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03382, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09346, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.872797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1507, "relative_activity": 0.422082, "balance": 0.872797, "dry_up": 1.161775, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017436, "annualized_volatility": 0.15182, "from_high_reference": -0.003582, "from_low_reference": 0.203817 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 284.861668, "fair_value_reference": 257.49676, "structural_low": 254.149994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.007042, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.003779, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.075269, "worst_return": -0.093663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008868, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.001213, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.075914, "worst_return": -0.038767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04231, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.000783, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.120451, "worst_return": -0.11448, "sufficient": true }, { 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71.408191, "energy": 86.228709, "activity_lines": [ 298.016661, 293.945452, 287.660476, 284.72957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 298.950012, "volume": 2121, "typical_volume": 5984.9, "trend": 282.238335, "fair_value": 256.101567, "relative_strength": 5.949459, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.691059, "energy": 85.600565, "activity_lines": [ 298.893333, 295.492727, 289.178572, 285.864517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 299.899994, "volume": 4085, "typical_volume": 6035.15, "trend": 283.123335, "fair_value": 256.523362, "relative_strength": 5.697992, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.890609, "energy": 85.075885, "activity_lines": [ 299.573332, 296.902726, 290.748095, 287.003979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 300.850006, "volume": 8879, "typical_volume": 4215.2, "trend": 283.995001, "fair_value": 256.992593, "relative_strength": 4.210493, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.565519, "energy": 69.356965, "activity_lines": [ 300.086668, 298.095454, 292.282143, 288.147635 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 305.950012, "volume": 1507, "typical_volume": 3570.4, "trend": 284.861668, "fair_value": 257.49676, "relative_strength": 3.382049, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.451868, "energy": 80.056671, "activity_lines": [ 301.970005, 299.970002, 294.158335, 289.564088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }