{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a23c4fbd-4633-448d-bad2-fe91e92be806", "symbol": "SAWAD", "name": "Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.636, "architecture_energy": 51.03, "architecture_maturity": 10.004, "architecture_confidence": 64.671, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.23, "rotation_up": 69.59, "upward_expansion": 54.04, "deceleration": 17.62, "rotation_down": 15.12, "downward_expansion": 24.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.826667, 24.25, 23.404272, 23.473104 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.0, "trend_reference": 23.808418, "distance_from_trend": 0.050049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.223012, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14451, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.498766, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.013854, "excess_performance": -0.206179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050049, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029109, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124057, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038937, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013854, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.88335, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62792700, "relative_activity": 1.019888, "balance": 1.88335, "dry_up": 1.313637, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053538, "annualized_volatility": 0.324913, "from_high_reference": -0.197093, "from_low_reference": 0.243781 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.808418, "fair_value_reference": 29.223012, "structural_low": 20.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009479, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.02473, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.128834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.021922, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.068063, "worst_return": -0.03681, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.03893, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.066099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163575, "worst_return": -0.006135, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 25.25, "volume": 104749600, "typical_volume": 61295115.0, "trend": 23.775037, "fair_value": 29.47801, "relative_strength": -15.101163, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.804595, "energy": 45.905133, "activity_lines": [ 24.336667, 23.267273, 22.868077, 23.280978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.5, "volume": 101969500, "typical_volume": 62526500.0, "trend": 23.730254, "fair_value": 29.385512, "relative_strength": -17.859584, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.354834, "energy": 53.760421, "activity_lines": [ 24.566667, 23.597273, 23.023429, 23.32775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.700001, "volume": 54001500, "typical_volume": 61383305.0, "trend": 23.716751, "fair_value": 29.311019, "relative_strength": -16.227736, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.96125, "energy": 54.700519, "activity_lines": [ 24.69, 23.923637, 23.20071, 23.390314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.0, "volume": 62792700, "typical_volume": 61568250.0, "trend": 23.808418, "fair_value": 29.223012, "relative_strength": -14.498766, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.636185, "energy": 51.029673, "activity_lines": [ 24.826667, 24.25, 23.404272, 23.473104 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }