{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a2499854-8af3-47b0-a06c-4aa70a08f784", "symbol": "ATLASCYCLE", "name": "Atlas Cycles (Haryana) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.738, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.9, "architecture_energy": 9.292, "architecture_maturity": 27.925, "architecture_confidence": 77.011, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.07, "rotation_up": 29.37, "upward_expansion": 51.15, "deceleration": 74.06, "rotation_down": 23.52, "downward_expansion": 22.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 98.269999, 98.274182, 98.977285, 97.581183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 99.720001, "trend_reference": 96.099667, "distance_from_trend": 0.037673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 71.356667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397487, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.785216, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.065612, "excess_performance": 0.109321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037673, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003515, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397487, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024037, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065612, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.382026, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88544, "relative_activity": 1.118096, "balance": 1.382026, "dry_up": 0.510075, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05814, "annualized_volatility": 0.347005, "from_high_reference": -0.261333, "from_low_reference": 0.309521 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 96.099667, "fair_value_reference": 71.356667, "structural_low": 76.150002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.032703, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046079, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.013378, "worst_return": -0.052415, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.175759, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.232041, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.175759, "worst_return": -0.175759, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.302148, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.227716, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.302148, "worst_return": -0.302148, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-08-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.175714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-08-27", "end": "2021-09-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2021-09-10", "end": "2021-09-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-10-01", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.292894, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.210926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.640952, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088881, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156565, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002983, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010642, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 28.85, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 28.85, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, 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-1.785216, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.900169, "energy": 9.291634, "activity_lines": [ 98.269999, 98.274182, 98.977285, 97.581183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }