{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a24e0e39-5464-438f-bbd8-d241ea979918", "symbol": "000722", "name": "Hunan Development Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.482, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.649, "architecture_energy": 6.805, "architecture_maturity": 25.751, "architecture_confidence": 81.899, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.98, "rotation_up": 39.06, "upward_expansion": 23.08, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 24.4, "downward_expansion": 32.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.059333, 12.894545, 13.366025, 13.505854 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 13.56, "trend_reference": 13.479089, "distance_from_trend": 0.006003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.132343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.659558, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.040297, "excess_performance": 0.032897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006003, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018007, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107678, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006596, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09232, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.040297, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.601055, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101644845, "relative_activity": 0.737776, "balance": 0.601055, "dry_up": 1.241916, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128716, "annualized_volatility": 0.723022, "from_high_reference": -0.308934, "from_low_reference": 0.29266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.479089, "fair_value_reference": 11.132343, "structural_low": 10.49, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.015187, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.030114, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.132075, "worst_return": -0.06171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017416, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.035717, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.992268, "worst_return": -0.152743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.111732, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.004562, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.880982, "worst_return": -0.224473, "sufficient": true 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"relative_strength": -2.257343, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.413867, "energy": 41.488938, "activity_lines": [ 12.492, 12.959091, 13.474438, 13.53631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.78, "volume": 137235272, "typical_volume": 137716428.05, "trend": 13.419061, "fair_value": 11.120452, "relative_strength": -0.368262, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.787782, "energy": 19.06203, "activity_lines": [ 12.688, 12.848182, 13.381106, 13.496762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.56, "volume": 101644845, "typical_volume": 137771986.45, "trend": 13.479089, "fair_value": 11.132343, "relative_strength": 0.659558, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.648525, "energy": 6.805358, "activity_lines": [ 13.059333, 12.894545, 13.366025, 13.505854 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }