{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a250099d-b099-4daf-af9c-3dd4e266ff4d", "symbol": "4533", "name": "Shieh Yih Machinery Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.864, "architecture_energy": 59.57, "architecture_maturity": 9.857, "architecture_confidence": 90.298, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.68, "rotation_up": 12.79, "upward_expansion": 12.29, "deceleration": 39.67, "rotation_down": 67.59, "downward_expansion": 87.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.916667, 26.785455, 28.444524, 29.395161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.4, "trend_reference": 30.643333, "distance_from_trend": -0.073208, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.844532, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048402, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.017338, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.135464, "excess_performance": -0.576836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071258, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048402, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148326, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.240173, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.593125, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10027699, "relative_activity": 0.9922, "balance": 0.593125, "dry_up": 0.467054, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119177, "annualized_volatility": 0.491673, "from_high_reference": -0.321386, "from_low_reference": 0.475325 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.643333, "fair_value_reference": 29.844532, "structural_low": 22.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.001997, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.008121, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.418224, "worst_return": -0.128378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.009259, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.016176, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.702842, "worst_return": -0.322097, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003783, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040015, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.873807, "worst_return": -0.279841, "sufficient": true }, 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"activity_lines": [ 27.363333, 28.575455, 29.736667, 30.340215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.450001, "volume": 4677142, "typical_volume": 12340141.75, "trend": 30.36, "fair_value": 29.861818, "relative_strength": -34.731716, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.385848, "energy": 76.421278, "activity_lines": [ 25.893334, 27.442727, 29.069762, 29.898172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.6, "volume": 1797196, "typical_volume": 11635657.95, "trend": 30.436667, "fair_value": 29.838676, "relative_strength": -32.501229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.050155, "energy": 76.155394, "activity_lines": [ 25.063334, 26.7, 28.560238, 29.526559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.4, "volume": 10027699, "typical_volume": 10106526.75, "trend": 30.643333, "fair_value": 29.844532, "relative_strength": -24.017338, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.863694, "energy": 59.570166, "activity_lines": [ 25.916667, 26.785455, 28.444524, 29.395161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }