{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a255dddf-c3a3-4108-a539-735876f1f84a", "symbol": "300197", "name": "CECEP Techand Ecology&Environment Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.414, "architecture_energy": 13.154, "architecture_maturity": 16.012, "architecture_confidence": 57.913, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.6, "rotation_up": 13.85, "upward_expansion": 19.64, "deceleration": 74.6, "rotation_down": 49.8, "downward_expansion": 30.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.798, 1.889818, 1.885524, 1.862 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.86, "trend_reference": 1.84, "distance_from_trend": 0.01087, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.0025, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071161, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.32386, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056818, "excess_performance": 0.049418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01087, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015079, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071161, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115908, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083239, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.240959, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056818, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.711591, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 428808607, "relative_activity": 1.188785, "balance": 0.711591, "dry_up": 1.436499, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164185, "annualized_volatility": 0.749211, "from_high_reference": -0.330935, "from_low_reference": 0.207792 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.84, "fair_value_reference": 2.0025, "structural_low": 1.54, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.026756, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.013018, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.259259, "worst_return": -0.128571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.063545, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007783, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.549383, "worst_return": -0.134259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.058594, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.007418, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.296296, "worst_return": -0.217593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.115424, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.003108, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.37037, "worst_return": -0.415966, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.301587, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223404, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133333, "active": false 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"close": 1.7, "volume": 535300759, "typical_volume": 349547983.45, "trend": 1.836, "fair_value": 2.011987, "relative_strength": -14.46012, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.144124, "energy": 18.750308, "activity_lines": [ 1.794667, 1.942, 1.885286, 1.861548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.82, "volume": 517884063, "typical_volume": 359489328.2, "trend": 1.837, "fair_value": 2.007051, "relative_strength": -6.270558, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.970493, "energy": 16.580493, "activity_lines": [ 1.784667, 1.914364, 1.883286, 1.860516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.86, "volume": 428808607, "typical_volume": 360711733.7, "trend": 1.84, "fair_value": 2.0025, "relative_strength": -8.32386, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.41372, "energy": 13.15428, "activity_lines": [ 1.798, 1.889818, 1.885524, 1.862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }