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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 63.572, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.062, "architecture_energy": 19.108, "architecture_maturity": 71.173, "architecture_confidence": 74.451, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.39, "rotation_up": 33.49, "upward_expansion": 21.69, "deceleration": 44.11, "rotation_down": 23.1, "downward_expansion": 58.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 440.397283, 435.05634, 440.97987, 448.786683 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 457.0, "trend_reference": 456.01433, "distance_from_trend": 0.002161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 490.578697, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068447, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.321108, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.025099, "excess_performance": 0.029568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002161, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016355, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068447, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059364, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023211, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115567, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.517201, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17093, "relative_activity": 0.671835, "balance": 0.517201, "dry_up": 0.630752, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037609, "annualized_volatility": 0.228606, "from_high_reference": -0.103072, "from_low_reference": 0.125537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 456.01433, "fair_value_reference": 490.578697, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.643593, "energy": 62.856392, "activity_lines": [ 426.87441, 431.408553, 442.207935, 450.072925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 435.5, "volume": 7751, "typical_volume": 28056.6, "trend": 455.978896, "fair_value": 491.541524, "relative_strength": -7.174669, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.116982, "energy": 39.786916, "activity_lines": [ 430.710109, 431.155265, 440.467197, 448.720806 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 457.0, "volume": 17093, "typical_volume": 25442.25, "trend": 456.01433, "fair_value": 490.578697, "relative_strength": -2.321108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.062464, "energy": 19.108041, "activity_lines": [ 440.397283, 435.05634, 440.97987, 448.786683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }